Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/07, 23:30

Prediction: Orense vs SD Aucas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Orense1.28

SD Aucas1.16

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Orense Draw SD Aucas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLLDL

SD Aucas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWWLW

Head-to-head

Orense 2–1–3 SD Aucas (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orense 1472 · SD Aucas 1548

	Orense	Draw	SD Aucas
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1472 vs 1548).
H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orense	SD Aucas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +2’	2.40	3.20	2.80
14:00 +5’	2.45▲	3.20	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 2–1–3 SD Aucas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	3-2 HT 2-0	Orense
21/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	0-0 HT 0-0	Orense
25/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-1 HT 2-0	SD Aucas
03/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	4-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
02/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	2-0 HT 1-0	Orense
04/12/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	1-2 HT 1-1	SD Aucas

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	20	16	1	3	49	20	49
2	SD Aucas	20	10	5	5	22	19	35
3	Barcelona Guayaquil	20	9	7	4	22	14	34
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	20	9	5	6	31	18	32
5	Macara	20	8	5	7	21	21	29
6	LDU Quito	20	8	4	8	19	16	28
7	Deportivo Cuenca	20	8	4	8	19	23	28
8	Leones FC	20	7	6	7	21	20	27
9	Emelec	20	7	6	7	17	23	27
10	Guayaquil City	20	7	5	8	18	22	26
11	Tecnico Universitario	20	7	2	11	19	21	23
12	Orense	19	6	5	8	22	26	23
13	Delfin SC	20	6	5	9	13	19	23
14	Mushuc Runa	19	5	6	8	24	29	21
15	Club Atletico Libertad	20	5	6	9	18	26	21
16	Manta FC	20	3	4	13	7	25	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orense	SD Aucas
Manta FC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Tecnico Universitario	1-2 L	1-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-2 L	2-1 W
Guayaquil City	1-0 W	1-0 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orense

DWWWLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
11/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
07/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
02/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
23/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
19/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
09/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
03/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
27/04	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D

SD Aucas

LWLWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
16/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
12/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
26/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
21/05	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
17/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
09/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
02/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orense vs SD Aucas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orense win (38%). Probabilities: Orense 38%, draw 30%, SD Aucas 32%.

How many goals are expected in Orense vs SD Aucas?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Orense 1.28 · SD Aucas 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orense vs SD Aucas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.