Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 30/08, 18:30

Prediction: Werder Bremen (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)

Team pages: RB Leipzig (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Werder Bremen (W)1.78

RB Leipzig (W)1.23

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Werder Bremen (W) Draw RB Leipzig (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Werder Bremen (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLLWWW

RB Leipzig (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDLLDL

Head-to-head

Werder Bremen (W) 1–3–2 RB Leipzig (W) (6 last)

RB Leipzig (W)1-1Werder Bremen (W)
RB Leipzig (W)1-1Werder Bremen (W)
Werder Bremen (W)2-1RB Leipzig (W)
Werder Bremen (W)1-4RB Leipzig (W)
RB Leipzig (W)2-0Werder Bremen (W)
Werder Bremen (W)1-1RB Leipzig (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Werder Bremen (W) 1539 · RB Leipzig (W) 1459

	Werder Bremen (W)	Draw	RB Leipzig (W)
Our model	49%	25%	25%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Werder Bremen (W) (rating 1539 vs 1459).
H2H favours RB Leipzig (W): 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Werder Bremen (W)	RB Leipzig (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:25 +6’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:29	1.86	3.65	3.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Werder Bremen (W) 1–3–2 RB Leipzig (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga Women	RB Leipzig (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen (W)
16/11/25 Germany DFB Pokal Women	RB Leipzig (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Werder Bremen (W)
09/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	RB Leipzig (W)
08/02/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	1-4 HT 0-1	RB Leipzig (W)
20/09/24 Germany Bundesliga Women	RB Leipzig (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen (W)
12/04/24 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	RB Leipzig (W)

Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wolfsburg (W)	1	1	0	0	8	2	3
2	Bayern Munich (W)	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
3	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Eintracht Frankfurt (W)	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	VfB Stuttgart (W)	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Werder Bremen (W)	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	Hamburger SV (W)	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	Freiburg (W)	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Mainz (W)	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
11	FC Cologne (W)	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
11	RB Leipzig (W)	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
13	Union Berlin (W)	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
14	Nurnberg (W)	1	0	0	1	2	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Werder Bremen (W)	RB Leipzig (W)
Bayer Leverkusen (W)	3-1 W	0-2 L
Carl Zeiss Jena (W)	7-0 W	1-1 D
Wolfsburg (W)	0-0 D	2-3 L
SGS Essen (W)	2-1 W	2-2 D
Union Berlin (W)	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Werder Bremen (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Werder Bremen (W)

WLWDDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/05	Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	4-0	7-0	6	1	W
02/05	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
29/04	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
25/04	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
22/04	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
29/03	SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
23/03	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-3	1-4	5	6	L
14/03	Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-2	4-2	5	1	W

RB Leipzig (W)

WDDWDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
17/05	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/05	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
02/05	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	2-3	4	2	L
25/04	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/03	Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
22/03	Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
14/03	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
22/02	SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
14/02	Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	3-0	3-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Werder Bremen (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Werder Bremen (W) 50%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig (W) 25%.

How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Werder Bremen (W) 1.78 · RB Leipzig (W) 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.