Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 06/09, 16:00
Prediction: Bayern Munich (W) vs Freiburg (W)
Team pages: Bayern Munich (W) · Freiburg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
Bayern Munich (W)2.91
Freiburg (W)0.91
1X2
Bayern Munich (W)
Draw
Freiburg (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayern Munich (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Freiburg (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayern Munich (W)
5–1–0
Freiburg (W)
(6 last)
- Freiburg (W)1-4Bayern Munich (W)
- Bayern Munich (W)4-0Freiburg (W)
- Bayern Munich (W)3-1Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)1-2Bayern Munich (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-2Bayern Munich (W)
- Bayern Munich (W)4-0Freiburg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayern Munich (W) 1675 · Freiburg (W) 1506
| Bayern Munich (W) | Draw | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 89% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (W) (rating 1675 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayern Munich (W) | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 7.9 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich (W) 5–1–0 Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich (W) |
| 23/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayern Munich (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 27/04/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayern Munich (W) | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Freiburg (W) |
| 24/11/24 Germany DFB Pokal Women | Freiburg (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich (W) |
| 08/11/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Bayern Munich (W) |
| 05/02/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayern Munich (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Freiburg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolfsburg (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Freiburg (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Cologne (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Nurnberg (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 11 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 | Mainz (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Union Berlin (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | RB Leipzig (W) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayern Munich (W) | Freiburg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Nurnberg (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| SGS Essen (W) | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayern Munich (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/03 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 23/02 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich (W) 84%, draw 11%, Freiburg (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Bayern Munich (W) 2.91 · Freiburg (W) 0.91), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.