Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Hamburger SV (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)

Team pages: Hamburger SV (W) · RB Leipzig (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Hamburger SV (W)1.13

RB Leipzig (W)1.39

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Hamburger SV (W) Draw RB Leipzig (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hamburger SV (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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RB Leipzig (W) 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLLDLL

Head-to-head

Hamburger SV (W) 1–1 RB Leipzig (W) (2 last)

Hamburger SV (W)1-3RB Leipzig (W)
RB Leipzig (W)0-1Hamburger SV (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hamburger SV (W) 1430 · RB Leipzig (W) 1449

	Hamburger SV (W)	Draw	RB Leipzig (W)
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hamburger SV (W)	RB Leipzig (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:45

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.08 → 3.08	Pinn 3.08
X	3.46 → 3.46	Pinn 3.46
2	2.09 → 2.09	Pinn 2.09

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:45	3.08	3.46	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburger SV (W) 1–0–1 RB Leipzig (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Germany Bundesliga Women	Hamburger SV (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	RB Leipzig (W)
25/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	RB Leipzig (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Hamburger SV (W)

Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wolfsburg (W)	2	2	0	0	10	3	6
2	Bayern Munich (W)	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
3	Werder Bremen (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	3	2	0	1	5	3	6
5	VfB Stuttgart (W)	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
6	Eintracht Frankfurt (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
7	Freiburg (W)	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	FC Cologne (W)	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
9	Hamburger SV (W)	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Nurnberg (W)	2	0	1	1	3	9	1
11	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
12	Mainz (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
13	Union Berlin (W)	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
14	RB Leipzig (W)	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hamburger SV (W)	RB Leipzig (W)
Freiburg (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Union Berlin (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Bayer Leverkusen (W)	1-3 L	0-2 L
Carl Zeiss Jena (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Werder Bremen (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RB Leipzig (W) (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hamburger SV (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
23/08	Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/05	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
09/05	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
01/05	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
24/04	Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
30/03	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
21/03	Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
15/03	Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
21/02	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	7	6	D

RB Leipzig (W)

DDWDDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-2	0-2	1	3	L
23/08	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
17/05	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/05	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
02/05	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	2-3	4	2	L
25/04	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/03	Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
22/03	Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
14/03	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
22/02	SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hamburger SV (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RB Leipzig (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Hamburger SV (W) 30%, draw 27%, RB Leipzig (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Hamburger SV (W) 1.13 · RB Leipzig (W) 1.39), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hamburger SV (W) vs RB Leipzig (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.