Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)

Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen (W) · Hamburger SV (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Bayer Leverkusen (W)2.49

Hamburger SV (W)0.78

1X2

75% 16% 10%

Bayer Leverkusen (W) Draw Hamburger SV (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bayer Leverkusen (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Hamburger SV (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bayer Leverkusen (W) 3–1–0 Hamburger SV (W) (4 last)

Hamburger SV (W)1-3Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Hamburger SV (W)1-1Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Bayer Leverkusen (W)2-1Hamburger SV (W)
Hamburger SV (W)0-4Bayer Leverkusen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1533 · Hamburger SV (W) 1450

	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	Draw	Hamburger SV (W)
Our model	74%	17%	9%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayer Leverkusen (W) (rating 1533 vs 1450).
H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen (W): 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	Hamburger SV (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.9	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:54 +15’	1.20	6.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 3–1–0 Hamburger SV (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 Germany Bundesliga Women	Hamburger SV (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Bayer Leverkusen (W)
16/11/25 Germany DFB Pokal Women	Hamburger SV (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Bayer Leverkusen (W)
05/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Hamburger SV (W)
25/11/23 Germany DFB Pokal Women	Hamburger SV (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Bayer Leverkusen (W)

Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich (W)	8	8	0	0	29	7	24
2	Wolfsburg (W)	8	7	0	1	26	8	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt (W)	8	5	2	1	15	7	17
4	Werder Bremen (W)	8	5	1	2	17	11	16
5	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
6	FC Cologne (W)	8	4	0	4	13	12	12
7	RB Leipzig (W)	8	3	1	4	14	14	10
8	Union Berlin (W)	8	3	1	4	14	16	10
9	Freiburg (W)	8	3	1	4	11	14	10
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	8	3	0	5	11	15	9
11	VfB Stuttgart (W)	8	2	2	4	8	20	8
12	Hamburger SV (W)	8	1	3	4	14	15	6
13	Nurnberg (W)	8	1	2	5	12	23	5
14	Mainz (W)	8	0	0	8	4	27	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	Hamburger SV (W)
Nurnberg (W)	0-2 L	5-1 W
Werder Bremen (W)	3-2 W	0-1 L
Freiburg (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bayern Munich (W)	2-3 L	0-1 L
Wolfsburg (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
RB Leipzig (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bayer Leverkusen (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-2	9	9	L
17/10	Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
02/10	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-2	3-2	3	8	W
20/09	Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	2-1	9	6	W
14/09	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	2-3	1	4	L
04/09	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/08	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
23/08	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-3	18	3	L
11/05	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	3-1	7	3	W

Hamburger SV (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	4-4	2	7	D
17/10	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
04/10	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
20/09	Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	3-0	5-1	5	5	W
11/09	Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
05/09	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
29/08	VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
23/08	Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/05	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
09/05	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayer Leverkusen (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen (W) 75%, draw 16%, Hamburger SV (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2.49 · Hamburger SV (W) 0.78), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs Hamburger SV (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.