Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 14/11, 12:00
Prediction: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Freiburg (W)
Team pages: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) · Freiburg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)1.96
Freiburg (W)1.24
1X2
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Draw
Freiburg (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Freiburg (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
4–2
Freiburg (W)
(6 last)
- Freiburg (W)1-2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)2-1Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)0-3TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)2-3Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-4TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)2-3Freiburg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1498 · Freiburg (W) 1478
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | Draw | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W): 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 4–0–2 Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
| 06/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 02/02/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
| 16/09/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Freiburg (W) |
| 22/03/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-4 HT 0-1 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
| 04/11/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Freiburg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 8 | 27 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | FC Cologne (W) | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Union Berlin (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 11 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 11 | Freiburg (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 12 | Nurnberg (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV (W) | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 6 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | Freiburg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Werder Bremen (W) | 0-3 L | 3-4 L |
| Mainz (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Nurnberg (W) | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Cologne (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Freiburg (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/10 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 04/10 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 16/10 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) win (54%). Probabilities: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 54%, draw 23%, Freiburg (W) 23%.
How many goals are expected in TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model expects 3.2 goals (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1.96 · Freiburg (W) 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.