Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 15/11, 16:00
Prediction: Nurnberg (W) vs FC Cologne (W)
Team pages: Nurnberg (W) · FC Cologne (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Nurnberg (W)1.44
FC Cologne (W)1.96
1X2
Nurnberg (W)
Draw
FC Cologne (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Nurnberg (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
FC Cologne (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nurnberg (W)
1–3
FC Cologne (W)
(4 last)
- Nurnberg (W)1-2FC Cologne (W)
- FC Cologne (W)3-0Nurnberg (W)
- FC Cologne (W)3-4Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)1-3FC Cologne (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nurnberg (W) 1480 · FC Cologne (W) 1562
| Nurnberg (W) | Draw | FC Cologne (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Market | 28% | 24% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cologne (W) (rating 1480 vs 1562).
- H2H favours FC Cologne (W): 3-0-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nurnberg (W) | FC Cologne (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.6 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nurnberg (W) 1–0–3 FC Cologne (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FC Cologne (W) |
| 31/10/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 23/03/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 3-4 HT 0-1 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 05/11/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | FC Cologne (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 8 | 27 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | FC Cologne (W) | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Union Berlin (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 11 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 11 | Freiburg (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 12 | Nurnberg (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV (W) | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 6 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nurnberg (W) | FC Cologne (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Freiburg (W) | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Union Berlin (W) | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-5 L | 3-1 W |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-8 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Cologne (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
FC Cologne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nurnberg (W) vs FC Cologne (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Cologne (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Nurnberg (W) 28%, draw 24%, FC Cologne (W) 49%.
How many goals are expected in Nurnberg (W) vs FC Cologne (W)?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Nurnberg (W) 1.44 · FC Cologne (W) 1.96), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Nurnberg (W) vs FC Cologne (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.