Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 12/09, 14:00
Prediction: FC Cologne (W) vs Union Berlin (W)
Team pages: FC Cologne (W) · Union Berlin (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
FC Cologne (W)1.88
Union Berlin (W)1.42
1X2
FC Cologne (W)
Draw
Union Berlin (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cologne (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Union Berlin (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cologne (W)
1–1
Union Berlin (W)
(2 last)
- Union Berlin (W)2-1FC Cologne (W)
- FC Cologne (W)2-1Union Berlin (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cologne (W) 1545 · Union Berlin (W) 1437
| FC Cologne (W) | Draw | Union Berlin (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cologne (W) (rating 1545 vs 1437).
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cologne (W) | Union Berlin (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cologne (W) 1–0–1 Union Berlin (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Union Berlin (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Cologne (W) |
| 12/10/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Union Berlin (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolfsburg (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Cologne (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Freiburg (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Nurnberg (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| 11 | RB Leipzig (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | Union Berlin (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cologne (W) | Union Berlin (W) |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Werder Bremen (W) | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Bayern Munich (W) | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cologne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-4 | 2-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
Union Berlin (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 21/08 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/03 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cologne (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cologne (W) win (47%). Probabilities: FC Cologne (W) 47%, draw 25%, Union Berlin (W) 28%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cologne (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
The model expects 3.3 goals (FC Cologne (W) 1.88 · Union Berlin (W) 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cologne (W) vs Union Berlin (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.