Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 20/09, 14:00
Prediction: Hamburger SV (W) vs Nurnberg (W)
Team pages: Hamburger SV (W) · Nurnberg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Hamburger SV (W)1.39
Nurnberg (W)1.35
1X2
Hamburger SV (W)
Draw
Nurnberg (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburger SV (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Nurnberg (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburger SV (W)
2–1–1
Nurnberg (W)
(4 last)
- Nurnberg (W)0-1Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)1-2Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-2Hamburger SV (W)
- Hamburger SV (W)1-1Nurnberg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburger SV (W) 1410 · Nurnberg (W) 1435
| Hamburger SV (W) | Draw | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hamburger SV (W): 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburger SV (W) | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburger SV (W) 2–1–1 Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 09/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 03/05/25 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Hamburger SV (W) |
| 17/11/24 Germany Bundesliga II Women | Hamburger SV (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nurnberg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | FC Cologne (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Freiburg (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | Nurnberg (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2 |
| 13 | Union Berlin (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburger SV (W) | Nurnberg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| VfB Stuttgart (W) | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Bayern Munich (W) | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| FC Cologne (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburger SV (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 30/03 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburger SV (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamburger SV (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Hamburger SV (W) 37%, draw 27%, Nurnberg (W) 36%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Hamburger SV (W) 1.39 · Nurnberg (W) 1.35), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.