Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 20/09, 16:00
Prediction: Freiburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Team pages: Freiburg (W) · Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.44Total
Freiburg (W)1.29
Bayer Leverkusen (W)2.15
1X2
Freiburg (W)
Draw
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Freiburg (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Freiburg (W)
1–1–4
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
(6 last)
- Bayer Leverkusen (W)4-1Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-1Bayer Leverkusen (W)
- Freiburg (W)1-2Bayer Leverkusen (W)
- Bayer Leverkusen (W)2-0Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-3Bayer Leverkusen (W)
- Freiburg (W)0-0Bayer Leverkusen (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Freiburg (W) 1530 · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 1567
| Freiburg (W) | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 22% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 22% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Freiburg (W) | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 5.3 / 8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Freiburg (W) 1–1–4 Bayer Leverkusen (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 10/11/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
| 26/01/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
| 14/12/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 31/08/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
| 10/03/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | FC Cologne (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Freiburg (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | Nurnberg (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2 |
| 13 | Union Berlin (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Freiburg (W) | Bayer Leverkusen (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (W) | 1-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| SGS Essen (W) | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Carl Zeiss Jena (W) | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| RB Leipzig (W) | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayer Leverkusen (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
Bayer Leverkusen (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 18 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Freiburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayer Leverkusen (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Freiburg (W) 21%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen (W) 56%.
How many goals are expected in Freiburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
The model expects 3.44 goals (Freiburg (W) 1.29 · Bayer Leverkusen (W) 2.15), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Freiburg (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.