Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 07/11, 12:00
Prediction: Freiburg (W) vs Nurnberg (W)
Team pages: Freiburg (W) · Nurnberg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.58Total
Freiburg (W)1.98
Nurnberg (W)1.61
1X2
Freiburg (W)
Draw
Nurnberg (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Freiburg (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Nurnberg (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Freiburg (W)
3–1–2
Nurnberg (W)
(6 last)
- Freiburg (W)2-1Nurnberg (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-1Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)3-2Freiburg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)1-2Freiburg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-0Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)0-2Nurnberg (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Freiburg (W) 1513 · Nurnberg (W) 1463
| Freiburg (W) | Draw | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Freiburg (W) (rating 1513 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Freiburg (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Freiburg (W) | Nurnberg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Freiburg (W) 3–1–2 Nurnberg (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 Women’s Friendly | Freiburg (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 13/03/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 07/09/24 Germany DFB Pokal Women | Nurnberg (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Freiburg (W) |
| 17/03/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 21/10/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Nurnberg (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Wolfsburg (W) | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen (W) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 16 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Cologne (W) | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| 8 | Union Berlin (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 10 |
| 9 | Freiburg (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 8 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV (W) | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 6 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 5 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Freiburg (W) | Nurnberg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig (W) | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Union Berlin (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| SGS Essen (W) | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-4 L | 2-8 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Freiburg (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 16/10 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
Nurnberg (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Freiburg (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Freiburg (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Freiburg (W) 45%, draw 24%, Nurnberg (W) 30%.
How many goals are expected in Freiburg (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model expects 3.58 goals (Freiburg (W) 1.98 · Nurnberg (W) 1.61), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Freiburg (W) vs Nurnberg (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.