Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Victoria Rosport vs Residence Walferdange

Team pages: Victoria Rosport · Residence Walferdange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Victoria Rosport1.89

Residence Walferdange1.9

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Victoria Rosport Draw Residence Walferdange

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Rosport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLDWL

Residence Walferdange 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Rosport 1453 · Residence Walferdange 1509

	Victoria Rosport	Draw	Residence Walferdange
Our model	38%	23%	39%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Residence Walferdange (rating 1453 vs 1509).
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Rosport	Residence Walferdange
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.8	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4.7	1 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.7	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.72
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.90 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +12’	2.40	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +2’	2.12	3.58	2.93
18:54 +183’	2.09▼	3.72▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	10	9	1	0	20	3	28
2	FC 03 Differdange	10	9	0	1	30	8	27
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	10	8	0	2	22	13	24
4	UN Kaerjeng	10	7	0	3	29	17	21
5	Union Luxembourg	10	5	4	1	24	11	19
6	Bissen	10	6	1	3	25	14	19
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	10	5	1	4	19	19	16
9	F91 Dudelange	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	US Hostert	10	3	2	5	15	18	11
11	Jeunesse Esch	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
12	Victoria Rosport	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	10	2	1	7	12	28	7
15	Wiltz	10	1	1	8	15	28	4
16	Swift Hesperange	10	0	0	10	2	38	-12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Rosport	Residence Walferdange
FC 03 Differdange	3-5 L	0-6 L
Swift Hesperange	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1-1 D	5-0 W
UN Kaerjeng	0-5 L	2-1 W
US Hostert	0-2 L	3-2 W
Rumelange	2-3 L	3-3 D
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2-3 L	2-1 W
UNA Strassen	0-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Residence Walferdange (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Rosport

LLLWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	3-5	3	7	L
11/10	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
16/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-1	6	11	D
11/09	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
05/09	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	9	8	L
30/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
09/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
04/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-4	–	–	L

Residence Walferdange

WLWLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-2	3-3	3	10	D
11/10	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
16/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	1	8	W
13/09	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
06/09	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
30/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
23/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Rosport vs Residence Walferdange?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Victoria Rosport win (38%). Probabilities: Victoria Rosport 38%, draw 24%, Residence Walferdange 38%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Rosport vs Residence Walferdange?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Victoria Rosport 1.89 · Residence Walferdange 1.9), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Rosport vs Residence Walferdange?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.