Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport

Team pages: Swift Hesperange · Victoria Rosport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Swift Hesperange1.09

Victoria Rosport2.43

1X2

15% 19% 66%

Swift Hesperange Draw Victoria Rosport

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Swift Hesperange 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Victoria Rosport 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Swift Hesperange 4–2–0 Victoria Rosport (6 last)

Swift Hesperange3-0Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport2-2Swift Hesperange
Victoria Rosport1-1Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange5-0Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport1-3Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange3-2Victoria Rosport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swift Hesperange 1402 · Victoria Rosport 1415

	Swift Hesperange	Draw	Victoria Rosport
Our model	15%	19%	66%
Market	15%	18%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Swift Hesperange: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swift Hesperange	Victoria Rosport
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.2	1.3 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.6	0.4 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.3	1.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	4.8 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 6.00▲	Pinn 8.14 ★
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.42 → 1.36▼	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:37 +5’	5.25	4.50	1.42
17:06 +2’	6.00▲	5.00▲	1.36▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:25 +16’	6.01	4.42	1.43
16:01 +66’	8.18▲	5.00▲	1.30▼
19:03 +129’	8.14▼	4.97▼	1.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swift Hesperange 4–2–0 Victoria Rosport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	3-0 HT 0-0	Victoria Rosport
07/12/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	2-2 HT 1-0	Swift Hesperange
08/03/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	1-1 HT 0-1	Swift Hesperange
15/09/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	5-0 HT 3-0	Victoria Rosport
18/02/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	1-3 HT 0-1	Swift Hesperange
20/08/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	3-2 HT 2-1	Victoria Rosport

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	8	8	0	0	17	2	24
2	FC 03 Differdange	8	7	0	1	19	5	21
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	8	6	0	2	16	11	18
4	Union Luxembourg	8	5	2	1	21	8	17
5	Progres Niedercorn	8	5	1	2	13	5	16
6	UN Kaerjeng	8	5	0	3	23	15	15
7	Bissen	8	5	0	3	18	11	15
8	Residence Walferdange	8	5	0	3	16	10	15
9	US Hostert	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
10	Jeunesse Esch	8	2	1	5	14	17	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	2	1	5	8	15	7
12	Rumelange	8	2	0	6	8	23	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	1	2	5	11	20	5
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
15	Wiltz	8	1	1	6	14	22	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	0	0	8	2	30	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swift Hesperange	Victoria Rosport
FC Etzella Ettelbruck	0-3 L	1-1 D
UN Kaerjeng	0-6 L	0-5 L
US Hostert	0-2 L	0-2 L
Union Luxembourg	0-5 L	2-2 D
Wiltz	2-7 L	4-0 W
Rumelange	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Victoria Rosport (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swift Hesperange

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	0	1	L
13/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
06/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-5	–	–	L
09/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-6	2-7	–	–	L
02/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
17/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	3-0	1	1	W

Victoria Rosport

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-1	6	11	D
11/09	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
05/09	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	9	8	L
30/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
09/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
04/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	0-4	–	–	L
23/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
17/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-3	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Victoria Rosport win (66%). Probabilities: Swift Hesperange 15%, draw 19%, Victoria Rosport 66%.

How many goals are expected in Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Swift Hesperange 1.09 · Victoria Rosport 2.43), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Swift Hesperange vs Victoria Rosport?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.