Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: US Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn

Team pages: US Hostert · Progres Niedercorn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

US Hostert1.26

Progres Niedercorn1.98

1X2

23% 23% 54%

US Hostert Draw Progres Niedercorn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

US Hostert 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLWDD

Progres Niedercorn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLWWD

Head-to-head

US Hostert 1–5 Progres Niedercorn (6 last)

US Hostert1-5Progres Niedercorn
Progres Niedercorn2-1US Hostert
US Hostert1-3Progres Niedercorn
Progres Niedercorn3-2US Hostert
Progres Niedercorn6-0US Hostert
US Hostert1-0Progres Niedercorn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Hostert 1496 · Progres Niedercorn 1531

	US Hostert	Draw	Progres Niedercorn
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Progres Niedercorn: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Hostert	Progres Niedercorn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0 / 0.7	2.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.7	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.95
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:37 +4’	3.80	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:39 +1’	4.05	3.67	1.75
16:04 +63’	3.95▼	3.63▼	1.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · US Hostert 1–0–5 Progres Niedercorn

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-5 HT 1-3	Progres Niedercorn
01/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	2-1 HT 0-0	US Hostert
04/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-3 HT 1-2	Progres Niedercorn
24/11/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	3-2 HT 1-1	US Hostert
29/03/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	6-0 HT 3-0	US Hostert
09/10/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-0 HT 1-0	Progres Niedercorn

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	8	8	0	0	17	2	24
2	FC 03 Differdange	8	7	0	1	19	5	21
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	8	6	0	2	16	11	18
4	Union Luxembourg	8	5	2	1	21	8	17
5	Progres Niedercorn	8	5	1	2	13	5	16
6	UN Kaerjeng	8	5	0	3	23	15	15
7	Bissen	8	5	0	3	18	11	15
8	Residence Walferdange	8	5	0	3	16	10	15
9	US Hostert	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
10	Jeunesse Esch	8	2	1	5	14	17	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	2	1	5	8	15	7
12	Rumelange	8	2	0	6	8	23	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	1	2	5	11	20	5
14	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
15	Wiltz	8	1	1	6	14	22	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	0	0	8	2	30	-12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Hostert	Progres Niedercorn
Jeunesse Esch	1-1 D	2-1 W
F91 Dudelange	0-0 D	2-4 L
Residence Walferdange	2-3 L	1-0 W
Union Luxembourg	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Progres Niedercorn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Hostert

LWLLWWLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
05/09	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-0	1	8	W
30/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	0	2	L
23/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
17/05	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Progres Niedercorn

LLWWWLLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
12/09	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
30/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
09/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-4	1	3	L
17/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Progres Niedercorn win (54%). Probabilities: US Hostert 23%, draw 23%, Progres Niedercorn 54%.

How many goals are expected in US Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn?

The model expects 3.24 goals (US Hostert 1.26 · Progres Niedercorn 1.98), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in US Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.