Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 02/08, 16:00
Prediction: Union Luxembourg vs UN Kaerjeng
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Union Luxembourg1.87
UN Kaerjeng1.13
1X2
Union Luxembourg
Draw
UN Kaerjeng
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Union Luxembourg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
UN Kaerjeng
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Luxembourg
4–2–0
UN Kaerjeng
(6 last)
- UN Kaerjeng2-5Union Luxembourg
- Union Luxembourg1-1UN Kaerjeng
- UN Kaerjeng1-4Union Luxembourg
- Union Luxembourg2-1UN Kaerjeng
- Union Luxembourg1-1UN Kaerjeng
- UN Kaerjeng0-5Union Luxembourg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Luxembourg 1498 · UN Kaerjeng 1536
| Union Luxembourg | Draw | UN Kaerjeng | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Union Luxembourg: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Luxembourg | UN Kaerjeng | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Luxembourg 4–2–0 UN Kaerjeng
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale | UN Kaerjeng | 2-5 HT 0-2 | Union Luxembourg |
| 02/11/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Union Luxembourg | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UN Kaerjeng |
| 18/05/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | UN Kaerjeng | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Union Luxembourg |
| 10/12/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Union Luxembourg | 2-1 HT 1-1 | UN Kaerjeng |
| 05/03/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Union Luxembourg | 1-1 HT 1-1 | UN Kaerjeng |
| 04/09/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale | UN Kaerjeng | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Union Luxembourg |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeunesse Esch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bissen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | F91 Dudelange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC 03 Differdange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Progres Niedercorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Victoria Rosport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wiltz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Residence Walferdange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swift Hesperange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UN Kaerjeng | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Hostert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rumelange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Luxembourg | UN Kaerjeng |
|---|---|---|
| FC Rodange | 6-1 W | 3-0 W |
| FC Mamer 32 | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Bissen | 0-5 L | 1-2 L |
| FC 03 Differdange | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Progres Niedercorn | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: UN Kaerjeng (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Luxembourg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Metz Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 22/04 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
UN Kaerjeng
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | F91 Dudelange Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 15/07 | Victoria Rosport Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Progres Niedercorn Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 19/04 | FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Luxembourg vs UN Kaerjeng?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Luxembourg win (54%). Probabilities: Union Luxembourg 54%, draw 24%, UN Kaerjeng 22%.
How many goals are expected in Union Luxembourg vs UN Kaerjeng?
The model expects 3 goals (Union Luxembourg 1.87 · UN Kaerjeng 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Luxembourg vs UN Kaerjeng?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.