Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 01/08, 19:00
Prediction: Progres Niedercorn vs Jeunesse Esch
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Progres Niedercorn1.44
Jeunesse Esch1.26
1X2
Progres Niedercorn
Draw
Jeunesse Esch
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Progres Niedercorn
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Jeunesse Esch
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Progres Niedercorn
3–3
Jeunesse Esch
(6 last)
- Jeunesse Esch2-1Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn0-2Jeunesse Esch
- Progres Niedercorn1-0Jeunesse Esch
- Jeunesse Esch0-3Progres Niedercorn
- Jeunesse Esch3-1Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn3-0Jeunesse Esch
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Progres Niedercorn 1437 · Jeunesse Esch 1559
| Progres Niedercorn | Draw | Jeunesse Esch | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeunesse Esch (rating 1437 vs 1559).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Progres Niedercorn | Jeunesse Esch | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.1 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Progres Niedercorn 3–0–3 Jeunesse Esch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Jeunesse Esch | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 06/12/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Jeunesse Esch |
| 07/11/25 Luxembourg Cup | Progres Niedercorn | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jeunesse Esch |
| 12/03/25 Luxembourg Cup | Jeunesse Esch | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 09/02/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Jeunesse Esch | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 11/08/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Jeunesse Esch |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeunesse Esch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bissen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | F91 Dudelange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC 03 Differdange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Progres Niedercorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Victoria Rosport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wiltz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Residence Walferdange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swift Hesperange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UN Kaerjeng | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Hostert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rumelange | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Progres Niedercorn | Jeunesse Esch |
|---|---|---|
| UN Kaerjeng | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Victoria Rosport | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Jeunesse Esch (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Progres Niedercorn
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Excelsior Virton Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Dijon Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | UN Kaerjeng Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 13/05 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Cup |
1-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/04 | Bissen Luxembourg Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
Jeunesse Esch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Koeppchen Wormeldange Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Avenir Beggen Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | US Feulen Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/07 | Residence Walferdange Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Progres Niedercorn vs Jeunesse Esch?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Progres Niedercorn win (40%). Probabilities: Progres Niedercorn 40%, draw 28%, Jeunesse Esch 32%.
How many goals are expected in Progres Niedercorn vs Jeunesse Esch?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Progres Niedercorn 1.44 · Jeunesse Esch 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Progres Niedercorn vs Jeunesse Esch?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.