Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: US Hostert vs FC Etzella Ettelbruck

Team pages: US Hostert · FC Etzella Ettelbruck

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

US Hostert2.07

FC Etzella Ettelbruck1.59

1X2

47% 24% 29%

US Hostert Draw FC Etzella Ettelbruck

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

US Hostert 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Etzella Ettelbruck 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

US Hostert 1–3–2 FC Etzella Ettelbruck (6 last)

US Hostert1-1FC Etzella Ettelbruck
FC Etzella Ettelbruck1-1US Hostert
FC Etzella Ettelbruck1-1US Hostert
US Hostert0-3FC Etzella Ettelbruck
FC Etzella Ettelbruck1-0US Hostert
US Hostert3-2FC Etzella Ettelbruck

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Hostert 1484 · FC Etzella Ettelbruck 1486

	US Hostert	Draw	FC Etzella Ettelbruck
Our model	48%	23%	29%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Etzella Ettelbruck: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Hostert	FC Etzella Ettelbruck
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.4	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	3.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 1.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:20 +9’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28	1.93	3.50	3.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · US Hostert 1–3–2 FC Etzella Ettelbruck

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/24 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	US Hostert	1-1	FC Etzella Ettelbruck
27/08/23 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1-1	US Hostert
30/04/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1-1 HT 1-0	US Hostert
27/11/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	0-3 HT 0-0	FC Etzella Ettelbruck
10/04/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	1-0 HT 1-0	US Hostert
03/11/21 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Etzella Ettelbruck

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Union Luxembourg	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
3	Bissen	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	FC 03 Differdange	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
4	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
6	Progres Niedercorn	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
7	Wiltz	3	1	1	1	9	5	4
8	Residence Walferdange	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Rumelange	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	UN Kaerjeng	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
11	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	US Hostert	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
13	Jeunesse Esch	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	F91 Dudelange	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
15	Victoria Rosport	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
16	Swift Hesperange	2	0	0	2	2	8	-12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Hostert	FC Etzella Ettelbruck
Residence Walferdange	2-3 L	3-0 W
Union Luxembourg	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Etzella Ettelbruck (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

US Hostert

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	3	7	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	7	7	L
18/07	F91 Dudelange Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-5	5	0	L
15/07	FC Luxemburg City Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	4	2	W
23/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
17/05	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
03/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	4-2	10	7	W
26/04	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/04	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-3	9	8	L

FC Etzella Ettelbruck

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
27/06	Union Luxembourg Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-3	4	0	L
23/05	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/05	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-3	0-8	10	3	L
10/05	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	4-2	–	–	W
03/05	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	FC Schifflange 95 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/04	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	4-3	–	–	W
12/04	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Hostert vs FC Etzella Ettelbruck?

According to our model, the most likely result is a US Hostert win (47%). Probabilities: US Hostert 47%, draw 24%, FC Etzella Ettelbruck 29%.

How many goals are expected in US Hostert vs FC Etzella Ettelbruck?

The model expects 3.66 goals (US Hostert 2.07 · FC Etzella Ettelbruck 1.59), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in US Hostert vs FC Etzella Ettelbruck?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.