Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 16/08, 18:00

Prediction: Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange

Team pages: Union Luxembourg · Swift Hesperange

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Union Luxembourg2.19

Swift Hesperange1.05

1X2

62% 21% 16%

Union Luxembourg Draw Swift Hesperange

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Luxembourg 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Swift Hesperange 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Luxembourg 4–2 Swift Hesperange (6 last)

Union Luxembourg1-0Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange0-1Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg3-1Swift Hesperange
Union Luxembourg2-0Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange1-0Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg2-5Swift Hesperange

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Luxembourg (rating 1553 vs 1437).
H2H favours Union Luxembourg: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Luxembourg	Swift Hesperange
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.92

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:50

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.21▼	Pinn 1.21
X	5.45 → 5.96▲	Pinn 5.96
2	8.90 → 10.18▲	Pinn 10.18

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:55 +10’	1.25	5.45	8.90
23:49	1.21▼	5.96▲	10.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Luxembourg 4–0–2 Swift Hesperange

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-0 HT 0-0	Swift Hesperange
26/11/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	0-1 HT 0-1	Union Luxembourg
12/04/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	3-1 HT 1-1	Swift Hesperange
09/11/24 Luxembourg Cup	Union Luxembourg	2-0 HT 1-0	Swift Hesperange
19/10/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Swift Hesperange	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
17/03/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	2-5 HT 1-4	Swift Hesperange

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Union Luxembourg	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
3	Bissen	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	FC 03 Differdange	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
4	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
6	Progres Niedercorn	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
7	Wiltz	3	1	1	1	9	5	4
8	Residence Walferdange	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Rumelange	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
10	UN Kaerjeng	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
11	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	US Hostert	2	0	0	2	4	7	0
13	Jeunesse Esch	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	F91 Dudelange	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
15	Victoria Rosport	2	0	0	2	2	7	0
16	Swift Hesperange	2	0	0	2	2	8	-12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Luxembourg	Swift Hesperange
US Hostert	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC 03 Differdange	0-2 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Luxembourg (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union Luxembourg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	6	3	W
11/07	Metz Club Friendly List	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
23/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
17/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	7	10	L
03/05	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-5	5	5	L
26/04	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-2	3	9	W
22/04	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Cup	0-0	0-2	3	6	L

Swift Hesperange

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-6	2-7	2	5	L
02/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	UT Petange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
17/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	3-0	1	1	W
10/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
03/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
19/04	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
12/04	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-4	1-5	3	2	L
04/04	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Luxembourg win (62%). Probabilities: Union Luxembourg 62%, draw 21%, Swift Hesperange 16%.

How many goals are expected in Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Union Luxembourg 2.19 · Swift Hesperange 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.