Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 02/08, 15:00

Prediction: UNA Strassen vs Victoria Rosport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

UNA Strassen1.84

Victoria Rosport0.7

1X2

65% 21% 14%

UNA Strassen Draw Victoria Rosport

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

UNA Strassen 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWWWLL

Victoria Rosport 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLLLLD

Head-to-head

UNA Strassen 3–3–0 Victoria Rosport (6 last)

UNA Strassen2-0Victoria Rosport
UNA Strassen0-0Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport2-2UNA Strassen
Victoria Rosport0-3UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen4-1Victoria Rosport
UNA Strassen0-0Victoria Rosport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNA Strassen 1524 · Victoria Rosport 1446

	UNA Strassen	Draw	Victoria Rosport
Our model	64%	24%	13%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNA Strassen (rating 1524 vs 1446).
H2H favours UNA Strassen: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNA Strassen	Victoria Rosport
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.43 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.19

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:52 +6’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:26	1.29	5.13	8.20
15:49	1.43▲	4.25▼	6.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UNA Strassen 3–3–0 Victoria Rosport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Europe Friendlies	UNA Strassen	2-0 HT 1-0	Victoria Rosport
15/02/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	0-0 HT 0-0	Victoria Rosport
17/08/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	2-2 HT 0-0	UNA Strassen
18/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Victoria Rosport	0-3 HT 0-2	UNA Strassen
08/12/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	4-1 HT 1-0	Victoria Rosport
03/03/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	0-0 HT 0-0	Victoria Rosport

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jeunesse Esch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bissen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	F91 Dudelange	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC 03 Differdange	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Progres Niedercorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UNA Strassen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Victoria Rosport	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wiltz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Residence Walferdange	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Luxembourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swift Hesperange	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UN Kaerjeng	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Hostert	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rumelange	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNA Strassen	Victoria Rosport
FC 03 Differdange	1-1 D	1-4 L
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	0-0 D	1-0 W
F91 Dudelange	1-1 D	2-1 W
Jeunesse Esch	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UNA Strassen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Partizan Belgrade UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
23/07	Partizan Belgrade UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
14/07	La Fiorita UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
07/07	La Fiorita UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	13	2	W
27/06	Victoria Rosport Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
19/06	FC 03 Differdange Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
17/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
03/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

Victoria Rosport

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FC Marisca Mersch Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/07	UN Kaerjeng Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-3	5	0	L
27/06	UNA Strassen Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
29/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Cup	0-2	1-4	3	6	L
23/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
17/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
13/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Cup	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
10/05	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNA Strassen vs Victoria Rosport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNA Strassen win (65%). Probabilities: UNA Strassen 65%, draw 21%, Victoria Rosport 14%.

How many goals are expected in UNA Strassen vs Victoria Rosport?

The model expects 2.54 goals (UNA Strassen 1.84 · Victoria Rosport 0.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UNA Strassen vs Victoria Rosport?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.