Prediction: Pacos Ferreira vs Varzim
Team pages: Pacos Ferreira · Varzim
- Pacos Ferreira1-0Varzim
- Varzim0-1Pacos Ferreira
| Pacos Ferreira | Draw | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 33% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varzim (rating 1462 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Pacos Ferreira: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pacos Ferreira | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.9 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pacos Ferreira 2–0–0 Varzim
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/19 Portugal Segunda Liga | Pacos Ferreira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Varzim |
| 02/09/18 Portugal Segunda Liga | Varzim | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pacos Ferreira |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Varzim | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | AD Fafe | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | SC Vianense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | AD Marco 09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Sao Joao Ver | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | Leca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Pacos Ferreira | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | Trofense | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pacos Ferreira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Paredes Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 09/08 | AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 15 | 11 | L |
| 26/04 | Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
3-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/04 | Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 29/03 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Varzim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | AD Marco 09 Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Guimaraes Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Academico Viseu Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/07 | FC Tirsense Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pacos Ferreira vs Varzim?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pacos Ferreira win (37%). Probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 37%, draw 31%, Varzim 32%.
How many goals are expected in Pacos Ferreira vs Varzim?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Pacos Ferreira 1.16 · Varzim 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Varzim?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.