Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 22/08, 19:00
Prediction: Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon
Team pages: Sporting Covilha · Atletico CP Lisbon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.89Total
Sporting Covilha0.89
Atletico CP Lisbon1
1X2
Sporting Covilha
Draw
Atletico CP Lisbon
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Covilha
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Atletico CP Lisbon
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Covilha
2–2–2
Atletico CP Lisbon
(6 last)
- Sporting Covilha2-1Atletico CP Lisbon
- Atletico CP Lisbon1-2Sporting Covilha
- Sporting Covilha0-0Atletico CP Lisbon
- Atletico CP Lisbon0-0Sporting Covilha
- Sporting Covilha1-3Atletico CP Lisbon
- Atletico CP Lisbon1-0Sporting Covilha
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Covilha 1508 · Atletico CP Lisbon 1503
| Sporting Covilha | Draw | Atletico CP Lisbon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Covilha | Atletico CP Lisbon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.5 | 1.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Covilha 2–2–2 Atletico CP Lisbon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico CP Lisbon |
| 28/02/26 Portugal Liga 3 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sporting Covilha |
| 17/01/26 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico CP Lisbon |
| 26/10/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Covilha |
| 12/01/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Atletico CP Lisbon |
| 29/09/24 Portugal Liga 3 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Covilha |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | CD Mafra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Sporting Covilha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | UD Oliveirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 6 | Caldas SC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Lusitano GC Evora | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Louletano DC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | UD Santarem | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Covilha | Atletico CP Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| Amora | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Caldas SC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Lusitano GC Evora | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| SU 1 Dezembro | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Covilha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/02 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
Atletico CP Lisbon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Benfica B Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Sporting Covilha Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico CP Lisbon win (37%). Probabilities: Sporting Covilha 31%, draw 32%, Atletico CP Lisbon 37%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon?
The model expects 1.89 goals (Sporting Covilha 0.89 · Atletico CP Lisbon 1), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Covilha vs Atletico CP Lisbon?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.