Football · Greece Super League 1 · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: OFI Crete vs PAOK Salonika

Team pages: OFI Crete · PAOK Salonika

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

OFI Crete1.04

PAOK Salonika1.9

1X2

18% 26% 56%

OFI Crete Draw PAOK Salonika

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

OFI Crete 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWDLL

PAOK Salonika 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

OFI Crete 1–2–3 PAOK Salonika (6 last)

PAOK Salonika0-0OFI Crete
PAOK Salonika2-2OFI Crete
PAOK Salonika3-0OFI Crete
OFI Crete1-2PAOK Salonika
OFI Crete0-5PAOK Salonika
PAOK Salonika1-2OFI Crete

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFI Crete 1491 · PAOK Salonika 1551

	OFI Crete	Draw	PAOK Salonika
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	18%	27%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PAOK Salonika (rating 1491 vs 1551).
H2H favours PAOK Salonika: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFI Crete	PAOK Salonika
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.84 ★
2	1.60 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.71

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +9’	5.25	3.60	1.60
02:18 +5’	4.75▼	3.50▼	1.70▲
14:30 +2’	4.75	3.40▼	1.70
15:35 +3’	5.25▲	3.50▲	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +21’	4.72	3.91	1.68
17:04 +20’	4.72	3.79▼	1.71▲
20:06 +57’	4.64▼	3.86▲	1.71
21:15 +59’	4.63▼	3.84▼	1.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFI Crete 1–2–3 PAOK Salonika

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Greece Cup	PAOK Salonika	0-0 HT 0-0	OFI Crete
25/04/26 Greece Cup	PAOK Salonika	2-2 HT 1-1	OFI Crete
18/01/26 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	3-0 HT 3-0	OFI Crete
14/09/25 Greece Super League 1	OFI Crete	1-2 HT 0-2	PAOK Salonika
08/02/25 Greece Super League 1	OFI Crete	0-5 HT 0-3	PAOK Salonika
27/10/24 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	1-2 HT 1-0	OFI Crete

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	7	6	0	1	17	4	18
2	Olympiacos	7	5	1	1	7	2	16
3	PAOK Salonika	7	5	0	2	15	9	15
4	AEK Athens	6	4	2	0	16	3	14
5	Aris Salonika	7	4	1	2	10	13	13
6	Kalamata	7	3	1	3	13	12	10
7	OFI Crete	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
8	Iraklis 1908 FC	7	2	3	2	7	8	9
9	Panetolikos	7	3	0	4	8	11	9
10	Kifisias FC	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
11	Asteras Tripolis	7	1	2	4	7	15	5
12	Atromitos Athinon	6	0	2	4	5	9	2
13	Levadiakos	7	0	2	5	0	11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	0	3	4	6	12	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFI Crete	PAOK Salonika
Kalamata	3-4 L	1-3 L
AEK Athens	0-3 L	1-1 D
Olympiacos	1-0 W	1-1 D
Aris Salonika	1-2 L	2-0 W
Levadiakos	2-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PAOK Salonika (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFI Crete

LLWWLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kalamata Greece Super League 1	0-2	3-4	6	6	L
10/10	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
20/09	Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
06/09	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
30/08	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
23/08	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
17/05	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
13/05	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-3	1	13	L
10/05	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-2	1-3	5	2	L

PAOK Salonika

DDDWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
12/10	Kalamata Greece Super League 1	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
13/09	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
06/09	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/08	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
23/08	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-0	3	0	W
17/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
13/05	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
10/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFI Crete vs PAOK Salonika?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PAOK Salonika win (56%). Probabilities: OFI Crete 18%, draw 26%, PAOK Salonika 56%.

How many goals are expected in OFI Crete vs PAOK Salonika?

The model expects 2.94 goals (OFI Crete 1.04 · PAOK Salonika 1.9), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in OFI Crete vs PAOK Salonika?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.