Football · Greece Super League 1 · 01/11, 18:00
Prediction: PAOK Salonika vs Asteras Tripolis
Team pages: PAOK Salonika · Asteras Tripolis
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
PAOK Salonika2.26
Asteras Tripolis0.74
1X2
PAOK Salonika
Draw
Asteras Tripolis
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
PAOK Salonika
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Asteras Tripolis
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PAOK Salonika
5–1–0
Asteras Tripolis
(6 last)
- PAOK Salonika2-0Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis3-3PAOK Salonika
- PAOK Salonika2-0Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis1-2PAOK Salonika
- Asteras Tripolis1-4PAOK Salonika
- PAOK Salonika3-0Asteras Tripolis
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PAOK Salonika 1536 · Asteras Tripolis 1456
| PAOK Salonika | Draw | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PAOK Salonika (rating 1536 vs 1456).
- H2H favours PAOK Salonika: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PAOK Salonika | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PAOK Salonika 5–1–0 Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Greece Super League 1 | PAOK Salonika | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 28/09/25 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 3-3 HT 2-3 | PAOK Salonika |
| 02/03/25 Greece Super League 1 | PAOK Salonika | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 24/11/24 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-2 HT 0-0 | PAOK Salonika |
| 17/12/23 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-4 HT 0-1 | PAOK Salonika |
| 20/08/23 Greece Super League 1 | PAOK Salonika | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | AEK Athens | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Aris Salonika | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | PAOK Salonika | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 7 | Kifisias FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos Athinon | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PAOK Salonika | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Iraklis 1908 FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Panetolikos | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Panathinaikos | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Atromitos Athinon | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Levadiakos | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| AEK Athens | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: PAOK Salonika (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PAOK Salonika
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 12/10 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 10/10 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 21/05 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PAOK Salonika vs Asteras Tripolis?
According to our model, the most likely result is a PAOK Salonika win (71%). Probabilities: PAOK Salonika 71%, draw 19%, Asteras Tripolis 10%.
How many goals are expected in PAOK Salonika vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model expects 3 goals (PAOK Salonika 2.26 · Asteras Tripolis 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in PAOK Salonika vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.