Football · Greece Super League 1 · 08/11, 20:00
Prediction: Olympiacos vs PAOK Salonika
Team pages: Olympiacos · PAOK Salonika
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Olympiacos1.64
PAOK Salonika0.72
1X2
Olympiacos
Draw
PAOK Salonika
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Olympiacos
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
PAOK Salonika
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olympiacos
1–2–3
PAOK Salonika
(6 last)
- Olympiacos1-1PAOK Salonika
- PAOK Salonika3-1Olympiacos
- Olympiacos0-0PAOK Salonika
- Olympiacos0-2PAOK Salonika
- PAOK Salonika2-1Olympiacos
- Olympiacos4-2PAOK Salonika
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olympiacos 1619 · PAOK Salonika 1573
| Olympiacos | Draw | PAOK Salonika | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olympiacos (rating 1619 vs 1573).
- H2H favours PAOK Salonika: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olympiacos | PAOK Salonika | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.7 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olympiacos 1–2–3 PAOK Salonika
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Greece Super League 1 | Olympiacos | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PAOK Salonika |
| 03/05/26 Greece Super League 1 | PAOK Salonika | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Olympiacos |
| 08/03/26 Greece Super League 1 | Olympiacos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | PAOK Salonika |
| 14/01/26 Greece Cup | Olympiacos | 0-2 HT 0-2 | PAOK Salonika |
| 05/10/25 Greece Super League 1 | PAOK Salonika | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Olympiacos |
| 04/05/25 Greece Super League 1 | Olympiacos | 4-2 HT 2-2 | PAOK Salonika |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 22 |
| 3 | Aris Salonika | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | PAOK Salonika | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | AEK Athens | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Kifisias FC | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 11 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 9 |
| 11 | Levadiakos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 13 | Atromitos Athinon | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olympiacos | PAOK Salonika |
|---|---|---|
| Kalamata | 5-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Panetolikos | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Panathinaikos | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Levadiakos | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| OFI Crete | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Asteras Tripolis | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Atromitos Athinon | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Olympiacos (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olympiacos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 25/10 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 20/09 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Volos NFC Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 30/08 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 14 | 10 | W |
| 17/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
PAOK Salonika
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 12/10 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olympiacos vs PAOK Salonika?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olympiacos win (59%). Probabilities: Olympiacos 59%, draw 24%, PAOK Salonika 16%.
How many goals are expected in Olympiacos vs PAOK Salonika?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Olympiacos 1.64 · PAOK Salonika 0.72), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs PAOK Salonika?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.