Football · Greece Super League 1 · 07/11, 18:30
Prediction: Aris Salonika vs Panetolikos
Team pages: Aris Salonika · Panetolikos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Aris Salonika2.15
Panetolikos0.82
1X2
Aris Salonika
Draw
Panetolikos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Aris Salonika
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Panetolikos
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aris Salonika
4–2
Panetolikos
(6 last)
- Panetolikos0-1Aris Salonika
- Aris Salonika2-0Panetolikos
- Panetolikos0-1Aris Salonika
- Aris Salonika0-2Panetolikos
- Aris Salonika2-1Panetolikos
- Panetolikos2-1Aris Salonika
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aris Salonika 1545 · Panetolikos 1422
| Aris Salonika | Draw | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aris Salonika (rating 1545 vs 1422).
- H2H favours Aris Salonika: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aris Salonika | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aris Salonika 4–0–2 Panetolikos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aris Salonika |
| 06/01/26 Greece Cup | Aris Salonika | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Panetolikos |
| 17/09/25 Greece Cup | Panetolikos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aris Salonika |
| 30/08/25 Greece Super League 1 | Aris Salonika | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Panetolikos |
| 23/02/25 Greece Super League 1 | Aris Salonika | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Panetolikos |
| 09/11/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aris Salonika |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 22 |
| 3 | PAOK Salonika | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | AEK Athens | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Aris Salonika | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 7 | Kifisias FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
| 11 | Levadiakos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 13 | Atromitos Athinon | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aris Salonika | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| Levadiakos | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Kifisias FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| PAOK Salonika | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| AEK Athens | 0-5 L | 0-5 L |
| OFI Crete | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Kalamata | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aris Salonika
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Volos NFC Greece Super League 1 |
3-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
Panetolikos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/10 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/05 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aris Salonika vs Panetolikos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aris Salonika win (67%). Probabilities: Aris Salonika 67%, draw 22%, Panetolikos 12%.
How many goals are expected in Aris Salonika vs Panetolikos?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Aris Salonika 2.15 · Panetolikos 0.82), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aris Salonika vs Panetolikos?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.