Football · Thailand Premier League · 11/09, 13:00
Prediction: Buriram United vs Chiangrai Utd
Team pages: Buriram United · Chiangrai Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Buriram United2.62
Chiangrai Utd0.62
1X2
Buriram United
Draw
Chiangrai Utd
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Buriram United
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Chiangrai Utd
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Buriram United
5–1–0
Chiangrai Utd
(6 last)
- Buriram United8-1Chiangrai Utd
- Chiangrai Utd1-2Buriram United
- Buriram United1-1Chiangrai Utd
- Buriram United8-0Chiangrai Utd
- Chiangrai Utd0-5Buriram United
- Buriram United2-1Chiangrai Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Buriram United 1615 · Chiangrai Utd 1525
| Buriram United | Draw | Chiangrai Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 80% | 14% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buriram United (rating 1615 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Buriram United: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Buriram United | Chiangrai Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 7.7 | 1.2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Buriram United 5–1–0 Chiangrai Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 8-1 HT 4-1 | Chiangrai Utd |
| 31/08/25 Thailand Premier League | Chiangrai Utd | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Buriram United |
| 09/04/25 Thailand Cup | Buriram United | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Chiangrai Utd |
| 15/01/25 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 8-0 HT 5-0 | Chiangrai Utd |
| 25/08/24 Thailand Premier League | Chiangrai Utd | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Buriram United |
| 31/03/24 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chiangrai Utd |
Standings · Thailand Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uthai Thani FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Bangkok United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ayutthaya United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Port FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Chiangrai Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Rayong FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | BG Pathum United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Pattani FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Rasi Salai United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Ratchaburi FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Chonburi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Prachuap FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Sisaket United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Sukhothai FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lamphun Warrior FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Buriram United | Chiangrai Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Sukhothai FC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Lamphun Warrior FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Port FC | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Kanchanaburi Power | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Ratchaburi FC | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Muang Thong United | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Chonburi | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Nakhon Ratchasima | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Buriram United (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Buriram United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Rayong FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 07/03 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Chiangrai Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 05/04 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/03 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/03 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 01/03 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Buriram United vs Chiangrai Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Buriram United win (80%). Probabilities: Buriram United 80%, draw 14%, Chiangrai Utd 6%.
How many goals are expected in Buriram United vs Chiangrai Utd?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Buriram United 2.62 · Chiangrai Utd 0.62), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai Utd?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.