Football · Thailand Premier League · 20/09, 14:00

Prediction: Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United

Team pages: Bangkok United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Bangkok United1.38

BG Pathum United0.99

1X2

45% 28% 26%

Bangkok United Draw BG Pathum United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bangkok United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWDWL

BG Pathum United 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Bangkok United 4–1–1 BG Pathum United (6 last)

BG Pathum United0-1Bangkok United
Bangkok United2-1BG Pathum United
Bangkok United3-0BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United1-0Bangkok United
BG Pathum United2-2Bangkok United
Bangkok United2-0BG Pathum United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bangkok United 1490 · BG Pathum United 1504

	Bangkok United	Draw	BG Pathum United
Our model	45%	30%	26%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bangkok United: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bangkok United	BG Pathum United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	2.6 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:46 +4’	1.95	3.30	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:30 +40’	1.96	3.17	3.94
16:42 +40’	1.95▼	3.18▲	3.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bangkok United 4–1–1 BG Pathum United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Thailand Premier League	BG Pathum United	0-1 HT 0-0	Bangkok United
30/08/25 Thailand Premier League	Bangkok United	2-1 HT 0-0	BG Pathum United
19/04/25 Thailand Premier League	Bangkok United	3-0 HT 1-0	BG Pathum United
01/12/24 Thailand Premier League	BG Pathum United	1-0 HT 0-0	Bangkok United
25/02/24 Thailand Premier League	BG Pathum United	2-2 HT 2-1	Bangkok United
25/09/23 Thailand Premier League	Bangkok United	2-0 HT 0-0	BG Pathum United

Standings · Thailand Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uthai Thani FC	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
2	Port FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	Rayong FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Ayutthaya United	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
5	Buriram United	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	BG Pathum United	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Chiangrai Utd	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Pattani FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Bangkok United	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Ratchaburi FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Prachuap FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Rasi Salai United	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
13	Chonburi	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
14	Sisaket United	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Sukhothai FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
16	Lamphun Warrior FC	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bangkok United	BG Pathum United
Ratchaburi FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Rayong FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Nakhon Ratchasima	0-1 L	1-0 W
Prachuap FC	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BG Pathum United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bangkok United

DWLLLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Sisaket United Thailand Premier League	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
10/05	Rayong FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
02/05	Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League	0-0	4-1	4	2	W
29/04	Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/04	Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
18/04	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	0-2	1-4	11	4	L
11/04	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
03/04	Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/03	Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

BG Pathum United

LDDWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Rasi Salai United Thailand Premier League	2-2	3-2	10	5	W
04/09	Pattani FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
10/05	Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League	2-0	3-0	12	4	W
01/05	Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/04	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League	0-0	1-0	15	2	W
19/04	Port FC Thailand Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
04/04	Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
22/03	Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
14/03	Rayong FC Thailand Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
08/03	Chonburi Thailand Premier League	1-1	2-3	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bangkok United win (45%). Probabilities: Bangkok United 45%, draw 28%, BG Pathum United 26%.

How many goals are expected in Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Bangkok United 1.38 · BG Pathum United 0.99), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.