Football · Thailand Premier League · 20/09, 13:00
Prediction: Chonburi vs Buriram United
Team pages: Chonburi · Buriram United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Chonburi1.13
Buriram United2.12
1X2
Chonburi
Draw
Buriram United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Chonburi
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Buriram United
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chonburi
1–2–3
Buriram United
(6 last)
- Buriram United5-0Chonburi
- Chonburi4-2Buriram United
- Chonburi1-1Buriram United
- Buriram United2-2Chonburi
- Buriram United2-0Chonburi
- Chonburi2-3Buriram United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chonburi 1473 · Buriram United 1605
| Chonburi | Draw | Buriram United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Market | 18% | 24% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buriram United (rating 1473 vs 1605).
- H2H favours Buriram United: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chonburi | Buriram United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.7 | 3 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chonburi 1–2–3 Buriram United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Chonburi |
| 09/11/25 Thailand Premier League | Chonburi | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Buriram United |
| 10/03/24 Thailand Premier League | Chonburi | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Buriram United |
| 08/10/23 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Chonburi |
| 29/01/23 Thailand Premier League | Buriram United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chonburi |
| 27/08/22 Thailand Premier League | Chonburi | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Buriram United |
Standings · Thailand Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uthai Thani FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Port FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Rayong FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Ayutthaya United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Buriram United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | BG Pathum United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Chiangrai Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pattani FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Bangkok United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Ratchaburi FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Prachuap FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Rasi Salai United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | Chonburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Sisaket United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Sukhothai FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Lamphun Warrior FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chonburi | Buriram United |
|---|---|---|
| Rayong FC | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Chiangrai Utd | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Kanchanaburi Power | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Muang Thong United | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Sukhothai FC | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Buriram United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chonburi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Rayong FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Rayong FC Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/03 | Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Buriram United Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/03 | BG Pathum United Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
Buriram United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Rayong FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chonburi vs Buriram United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Buriram United win (59%). Probabilities: Chonburi 18%, draw 23%, Buriram United 59%.
How many goals are expected in Chonburi vs Buriram United?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Chonburi 1.13 · Buriram United 2.12), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chonburi vs Buriram United?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.