Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 01/08, 23:30
Prediction: Genesis de Comayagua vs Atletico Choloma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Genesis de Comayagua1.64
Atletico Choloma1.11
1X2
Genesis de Comayagua
Draw
Atletico Choloma
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Genesis de Comayagua
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Atletico Choloma
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Genesis de Comayagua
2–1–1
Atletico Choloma
(4 last)
- Atletico Choloma1-2Genesis de Comayagua
- Genesis de Comayagua0-0Atletico Choloma
- Genesis de Comayagua1-0Atletico Choloma
- Atletico Choloma2-1Genesis de Comayagua
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Genesis de Comayagua 1520 · Atletico Choloma 1512
| Genesis de Comayagua | Draw | Atletico Choloma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Genesis de Comayagua: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Genesis de Comayagua | Atletico Choloma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Genesis de Comayagua 2–1–1 Atletico Choloma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Atletico Choloma | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Genesis de Comayagua |
| 01/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Choloma |
| 02/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Genesis de Comayagua | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Choloma |
| 24/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Atletico Choloma | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Genesis de Comayagua |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Atletico Choloma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Estrella Roja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Genesis de Comayagua | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | CD Marathon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Motagua | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Juticalpa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Lobos UPNFM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Olancho FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | CD Platense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Genesis de Comayagua | Atletico Choloma |
|---|---|---|
| Motagua | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Olancho FC | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| CD Victoria | 2-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Lobos UPNFM | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CD Marathon | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Platense | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Genesis de Comayagua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/04 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
Atletico Choloma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/04 | CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 10 | W |
| 05/04 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/04 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 25/03 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 21/03 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Genesis de Comayagua vs Atletico Choloma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Genesis de Comayagua win (49%). Probabilities: Genesis de Comayagua 49%, draw 26%, Atletico Choloma 25%.
How many goals are expected in Genesis de Comayagua vs Atletico Choloma?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Genesis de Comayagua 1.64 · Atletico Choloma 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Genesis de Comayagua vs Atletico Choloma?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.