Football · Paraguay Women League · 19/07, 14:00
Prediction: Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Sportivo Luqueno (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Nacional-Humaita (W)2.97
Sportivo Luqueno (W)0.97
1X2
Nacional-Humaita (W)
Draw
Sportivo Luqueno (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional-Humaita (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Luqueno (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional-Humaita (W)
5–1–0
Sportivo Luqueno (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1469 · Sportivo Luqueno (W) 1392
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | Draw | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional-Humaita (W) (rating 1469 vs 1392).
- H2H favours Nacional-Humaita (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.4 | 0.6 / 4.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/10/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.9 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional-Humaita (W) 5–1–0 Sportivo Luqueno (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 21/06/25 Paraguay Women League | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) |
| 28/03/25 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 14/07/24 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 0-5 HT 0-4 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
| 28/04/24 Paraguay Women League | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) |
| 06/08/23 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Nacional-Humaita (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 6 | 32 |
| 2 | Club Guarani (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 23 |
| 4 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 18 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 17 |
| 7 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 13 |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 34 | 9 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu (W) | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 33 | 8 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 5 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 47 | 2 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional-Humaita (W) | Sportivo Luqueno (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 1-4 L | 1-6 L |
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | 1-3 L | 0-9 L |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Guarani (W) | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-6 L | 0-9 L |
| Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 0-3 L | 0-7 L |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 3-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 6 L | 1 W 2 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional-Humaita (W) (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional-Humaita (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Sportivo Luqueno (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-7 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-4 | 1-6 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-6 | 0-9 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 23/04 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-9 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Sportivo Luqueno (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional-Humaita (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Nacional-Humaita (W) 79%, draw 13%, Sportivo Luqueno (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Sportivo Luqueno (W)?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Nacional-Humaita (W) 2.97 · Sportivo Luqueno (W) 0.97), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional-Humaita (W) vs Sportivo Luqueno (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.