Football · Lebanon League · 20/07, 20:30

Prediction: Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Nejmeh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Al Ansar Beirut1.41

Al Nejmeh1.05

1X2

44% 28% 27%

Al Ansar Beirut Draw Al Nejmeh

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Al Ansar Beirut 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWWDW

Al Nejmeh 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Al Ansar Beirut 1–3–2 Al Nejmeh (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Ansar Beirut 1544 · Al Nejmeh 1594

	Al Ansar Beirut	Draw	Al Nejmeh
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Nejmeh (rating 1544 vs 1594).
H2H favours Al Nejmeh: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Ansar Beirut	Al Nejmeh
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.1	2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	56/44/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.1	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +6’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ansar Beirut 1–3–2 Al Nejmeh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 World Club Friendlies	Al Ansar Beirut	2-2	Al Nejmeh
25/01/26 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Ansar Beirut
18/01/26 Lebanon Cup	Al Nejmeh	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Ansar Beirut
21/09/25 Lebanon League	Al Ansar Beirut	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Nejmeh
08/07/25 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	1-6 HT 0-4	Al Ansar Beirut
23/05/25 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Ansar Beirut

Standings · Lebanon League · Premier League 25/26, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Ansar Beirut	23	18	3	2	58	12	57
2	Al Nejmeh	23	15	5	3	44	10	50
3	Al Ahed	23	13	2	8	37	27	41
4	Jwaya FC	23	11	6	6	31	16	39

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Ansar Beirut	Al Nejmeh
Jwaya FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Al Ahed	3-3 D	2-0 W
Tadamon Sour	3-0 W	1-0 W
Al-Mabarrah	7-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Ansar Beirut (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Al Ansar Beirut

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	2-0	9	4	W
12/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	2-1	3-3	8	3	D
03/07	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
29/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	4-0	7-0	5	5	W
24/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
20/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	3-0	3-1	9	4	W
21/05	Al Nejmeh World Club Friendlies	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/05	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/04	Muras United FC AFC Challenge League	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
22/02	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Al Nejmeh

DWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
12/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
08/07	Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup	1-0	2-0	11	5	W
03/07	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
29/06	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
25/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
21/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	2-0	5-0	8	0	W
16/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
12/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/05	Al Ansar Beirut World Club Friendlies	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Nejmeh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Ansar Beirut win (44%). Probabilities: Al Ansar Beirut 44%, draw 28%, Al Nejmeh 27%.

How many goals are expected in Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Nejmeh?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Al Ansar Beirut 1.41 · Al Nejmeh 1.05), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Ansar Beirut vs Al Nejmeh?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.