Football · Lebanon League · 28/07, 20:30

Prediction: Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed

Team pages: Al Nejmeh · Al Ahed

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Al Nejmeh1.85

Al Ahed0.96

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Al Nejmeh Draw Al Ahed

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Al Nejmeh 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDWDW

Al Ahed 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDLLD

Head-to-head

Al Nejmeh 4–1–1 Al Ahed (6 last)

Al Ahed0-2Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh1-0Al Ahed
Al Ahed0-4Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh4-1Al Ahed
Al Nejmeh1-1Al Ahed
Al Ahed1-0Al Nejmeh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Nejmeh 1600 · Al Ahed 1478

	Al Nejmeh	Draw	Al Ahed
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Nejmeh (rating 1600 vs 1478).
H2H favours Al Nejmeh: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Nejmeh	Al Ahed
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.4	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/44/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +2’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Nejmeh 4–1–1 Al Ahed

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Lebanon League	Al Ahed	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Nejmeh
12/06/26 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Ahed
01/11/25 Lebanon League	Al Ahed	0-4 HT 0-1	Al Nejmeh
03/07/25 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	4-1 HT 2-0	Al Ahed
18/05/25 Lebanon League	Al Nejmeh	1-1 HT 1-1	Al Ahed
19/04/25 Lebanon League	Al Ahed	1-0	Al Nejmeh

Standings · Lebanon League · Premier League 25/26, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Ansar Beirut	25	18	5	2	60	14	59
2	Al Nejmeh	25	16	6	3	47	12	54
3	Jwaya FC	25	12	6	7	34	18	42
4	Al Ahed	25	13	3	9	38	30	42

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Nejmeh	Al Ahed
Jwaya FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Al Ansar Beirut	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sagesse SC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Nejmeh (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Al Nejmeh

LWWWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
12/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
08/07	Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup	1-0	2-0	11	5	W
03/07	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
29/06	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
25/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
21/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	2-0	5-0	8	0	W
16/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Al Ahed

LLWLWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
20/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
16/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
12/07	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
28/06	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	3-0	4-2	4	2	W
24/06	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	2-1	4-1	0	4	W
20/06	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
16/06	Sagesse SC Lebanon League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
12/06	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
18/05	Safa Beirut World Club Friendlies	0-1	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Nejmeh win (57%). Probabilities: Al Nejmeh 57%, draw 25%, Al Ahed 18%.

How many goals are expected in Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Al Nejmeh 1.85 · Al Ahed 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.