Prediction: Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh
| Al Ahed | Draw | Al Nejmeh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Nejmeh (rating 1494 vs 1585).
- H2H favours Al Nejmeh: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Ahed | Al Nejmeh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 3.1 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ahed 1–1–4 Al Nejmeh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Al Ahed |
| 01/11/25 Lebanon League | Al Ahed | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Al Nejmeh |
| 03/07/25 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Al Ahed |
| 18/05/25 Lebanon League | Al Nejmeh | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Al Ahed |
| 19/04/25 Lebanon League | Al Ahed | 1-0 | Al Nejmeh |
| 07/04/25 World Club Friendlies | Al Ahed | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Al Nejmeh |
Standings · Lebanon League · Premier League 25/26, Championship Round
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar Beirut | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 56 | 12 | 54 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 10 | 47 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Jwaya FC | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 14 | 39 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Ahed | Al Nejmeh |
|---|---|---|
| Al Ansar Beirut | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| Sagesse SC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Tadamon Sour | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Al-Mabarrah | 0-1 L | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Al Nejmeh (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Ahed
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Safa Beirut World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/02 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 15/02 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
Al Nejmeh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 08/07 | Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 03/07 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 16/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Al Ansar Beirut World Club Friendlies |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 21/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Nejmeh win (36%). Probabilities: Al Ahed 35%, draw 30%, Al Nejmeh 36%.
How many goals are expected in Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Al Ahed 1.25 · Al Nejmeh 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Ahed vs Al Nejmeh?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.