Football · Hungary NB III · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II

Team pages: Paksi SE II · MTK Budapest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Paksi SE II1.23

MTK Budapest II1.95

1X2

23% 23% 54%

Paksi SE II Draw MTK Budapest II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Paksi SE II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLDLL

MTK Budapest II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Paksi SE II 2–3 MTK Budapest II (5 last)

Paksi SE II2-1MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II3-0Paksi SE II
MTK Budapest II1-3Paksi SE II
MTK Budapest II2-1Paksi SE II
MTK Budapest II1-0Paksi SE II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paksi SE II 1456 · MTK Budapest II 1522

	Paksi SE II	Draw	MTK Budapest II
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MTK Budapest II (rating 1456 vs 1522).
H2H favours MTK Budapest II: 3-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paksi SE II	MTK Budapest II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/11/67%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.7	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.10

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +3’	3.75	4.10	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paksi SE II 2–0–3 MTK Budapest II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	2-1 HT 0-0	MTK Budapest II
27/08/25 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	3-0 HT 2-0	Paksi SE II
17/11/24 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	1-3 HT 1-2	Paksi SE II
26/11/23 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	2-1 HT 0-1	Paksi SE II
22/09/21 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	1-0 HT 0-0	Paksi SE II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	5	5	0	0	16	2	15
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	4	4	0	0	15	2	12
3	PEAC FC	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
4	Budafoki MTE	5	3	1	1	9	4	10
5	Ivancsa	5	3	0	2	11	6	9
6	Ferencvarosi TC II	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
7	Dunaharaszti MTK	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
8	Budaorsi SC	5	2	1	2	8	17	7
9	MTK Budapest II	4	2	0	2	13	5	6
10	Erdi VSE	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
11	BFC Siofok	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
12	Majosi SE	5	1	1	3	7	12	4
13	Paksi SE II	5	0	2	3	6	12	2
14	Sarbogard SE	5	0	1	4	2	13	1
15	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
16	Szekszardi	5	0	0	5	0	20	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paksi SE II	MTK Budapest II
Ivancsa	0-2 L	0-0 D
Szekszardi	2-3 L	8-0 W
BFC Siofok	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Budapest II (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paksi SE II

LLWWLDLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-3	1-3	8	4	L
26/07	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	10	4	L
26/04	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

MTK Budapest II

WWDDWLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
09/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	8-0	6	0	W
26/07	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-2	1	3	W
24/05	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Dunaujvaros FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
10/05	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
26/04	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
19/04	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	1-0	4-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MTK Budapest II win (54%). Probabilities: Paksi SE II 23%, draw 23%, MTK Budapest II 54%.

How many goals are expected in Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Paksi SE II 1.23 · MTK Budapest II 1.95), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paksi SE II vs MTK Budapest II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.