Football · Hungary NB III · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: Dorogi FC vs Papai Perutz

Team pages: Dorogi FC · Papai Perutz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Dorogi FC2.85

Papai Perutz0.85

1X2

79% 13% 8%

Dorogi FC Draw Papai Perutz

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorogi FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDWWL

Papai Perutz 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Dorogi FC 2–0 Papai Perutz (2 last)

Papai Perutz1-2Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC4-0Papai Perutz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorogi FC 1569 · Papai Perutz 1429

	Dorogi FC	Draw	Papai Perutz
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	79%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorogi FC (rating 1569 vs 1429).
H2H favours Dorogi FC: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorogi FC	Papai Perutz
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 7.4	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +8’	1.17	7.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorogi FC 2–0–0 Papai Perutz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Hungary NB III	Papai Perutz	1-2 HT 1-0	Dorogi FC
27/08/25 Hungary NB III	Dorogi FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Papai Perutz

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	6	5	1	0	22	6	16
2	MTE 1904	6	4	2	0	13	4	14
3	Dorogi FC	6	4	1	1	20	5	13
4	FC Tatabanya	6	4	1	1	16	4	13
5	Komarom VSE	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
6	Puskas Academy II	6	3	0	3	13	11	9
7	Györi ETO II	6	3	0	3	10	8	9
8	Bicskei TC	6	3	0	3	14	13	9
9	Sarisapi BSE	6	3	0	3	8	12	9
10	SC Sopron	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
11	Veszprem FC	6	2	2	2	10	15	8
12	Papai Perutz	6	2	1	3	6	12	7
13	Zalaegerszegi TE II	6	2	0	4	10	12	6
14	Kiraly SZE	6	1	1	4	4	11	4
15	1908 SZAC Budapest	6	0	1	5	4	22	1
16	Balatonalmadi SE	6	0	0	6	4	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorogi FC	Papai Perutz
Zalaegerszegi TE II	2-4 L	1-0 W
Komarom VSE	1-0 W	2-4 L
1908 SZAC Budapest	7-0 W	2-1 W
Veszprem FC	6-0 W	1-1 D
Puskas Academy II	3-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dorogi FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorogi FC

WDLWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
26/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
16/08	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	–	7-0	–	–	W
12/08	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/08	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	16	4	W
25/07	Balatonalmadi SE Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	10	1	W
24/05	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
03/05	Balatonfuredi FC Hungary NB III	3-1	3-1	6	5	W

Papai Perutz

LLLDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	2	7	L
26/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
15/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	–	2-4	–	–	L
12/08	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
08/08	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	4	11	W
25/07	Kiraly SE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/05	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
10/05	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
30/04	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	1-1	1-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorogi FC vs Papai Perutz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorogi FC win (79%). Probabilities: Dorogi FC 79%, draw 13%, Papai Perutz 8%.

How many goals are expected in Dorogi FC vs Papai Perutz?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Dorogi FC 2.85 · Papai Perutz 0.85), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorogi FC vs Papai Perutz?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.