Football · Hungary NB III · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: ESMTK vs Vasas SC II

Team pages: ESMTK · Vasas SC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

ESMTK2.35

Vasas SC II1.55

1X2

54% 22% 24%

ESMTK Draw Vasas SC II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ESMTK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWWD

Vasas SC II 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDLWLW

Head-to-head

ESMTK 4–2 Vasas SC II (6 last)

Vasas SC II0-5ESMTK
ESMTK2-0Vasas SC II
Vasas SC II2-4ESMTK
ESMTK3-2Vasas SC II
Vasas SC II2-1ESMTK
ESMTK1-2Vasas SC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESMTK 1567 · Vasas SC II 1514

	ESMTK	Draw	Vasas SC II
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1567 vs 1514).
H2H favours ESMTK: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESMTK	Vasas SC II
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.3	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:21 +8’	1.67	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 4–0–2 Vasas SC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Hungary NB III	Vasas SC II	0-5 HT 0-3	ESMTK
27/08/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	2-0 HT 1-0	Vasas SC II
02/03/25 Hungary NB III	Vasas SC II	2-4 HT 1-0	ESMTK
11/08/24 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	3-2 HT 2-0	Vasas SC II
19/05/24 Hungary NB III	Vasas SC II	2-1 HT 0-1	ESMTK
05/11/23 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	1-2 HT 1-1	Vasas SC II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	6	6	0	0	21	2	18
2	III Keruleti TUE	6	5	0	1	12	3	15
3	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	6	4	1	1	16	10	13
4	Csepel FC	6	3	2	1	17	6	11
5	Ujpest II	6	3	2	1	17	9	11
6	ESMTK	6	3	2	1	14	8	11
7	FC Dabas	6	3	1	2	12	12	10
8	Szolnoki Mav FC	6	2	3	1	14	14	9
9	Vasas SC II	6	2	2	2	12	9	8
10	Monori SE	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
11	Kispest Honved II	6	1	2	3	12	11	5
12	Sandorfalvi SK	6	1	0	5	4	23	3
13	Bekescsabai Elore SE	6	0	3	3	5	11	3
14	Hodmezovasarhelyi	6	0	3	3	6	15	3
15	Szegedi VSE	6	0	2	4	9	19	2
16	BKV Elore SC	6	0	1	5	5	26	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESMTK	Vasas SC II
III Keruleti TUE	1-3 L	3-0 W
Bekescsabai Elore SE II	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESMTK

WWLWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
12/08	Csepel FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
09/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
26/07	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
24/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	3-0	8-0	6	0	W
17/05	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	9	8	L
10/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	0-0	4-0	5	2	W
03/05	Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III	0-1	3-1	–	–	W

Vasas SC II

WWDDDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
26/08	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	2-1	3-5	1	4	L
08/08	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
17/05	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
10/05	Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
02/05	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/04	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs Vasas SC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (54%). Probabilities: ESMTK 54%, draw 22%, Vasas SC II 24%.

How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs Vasas SC II?

The model expects 3.9 goals (ESMTK 2.35 · Vasas SC II 1.55), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ESMTK vs Vasas SC II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.