Football · Hungary NB III · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Erdi VSE vs Ferencvarosi TC II

Team pages: Erdi VSE · Ferencvarosi TC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Erdi VSE1.47

Ferencvarosi TC II1.92

1X2

28% 25% 47%

Erdi VSE Draw Ferencvarosi TC II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Erdi VSE 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWDLL

Ferencvarosi TC II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Erdi VSE 1–1–2 Ferencvarosi TC II (4 last)

Ferencvarosi TC II0-1Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE0-1Ferencvarosi TC II
Ferencvarosi TC II3-0Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE1-1Ferencvarosi TC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erdi VSE 1510 · Ferencvarosi TC II 1527

	Erdi VSE	Draw	Ferencvarosi TC II
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ferencvarosi TC II: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erdi VSE	Ferencvarosi TC II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	67/11/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.3	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +11’	3.25	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +2’	2.92	3.74	1.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erdi VSE 1–1–2 Ferencvarosi TC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Hungary NB III	Ferencvarosi TC II	0-1 HT 0-0	Erdi VSE
17/08/25 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	0-1 HT 0-0	Ferencvarosi TC II
14/04/24 Hungary NB III	Ferencvarosi TC II	3-0 HT 0-0	Erdi VSE
01/10/23 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	1-1 HT 0-0	Ferencvarosi TC II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	6	6	0	0	23	2	18
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	5	5	0	0	19	4	15
3	Budafoki MTE	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
4	PEAC FC	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
5	Ferencvarosi TC II	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
6	MTK Budapest II	5	3	0	2	17	7	9
7	Ivancsa	6	3	0	3	11	13	9
8	BFC Siofok	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
10	Majosi SE	6	2	1	3	10	14	7
11	Budaorsi SC	6	2	1	3	9	20	7
12	Erdi VSE	5	1	2	2	10	10	5
13	Paksi SE II	6	0	2	4	8	16	2
14	Sarbogard SE	6	0	1	5	2	14	1
15	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
16	Szekszardi	6	0	0	6	1	23	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erdi VSE	Ferencvarosi TC II
Majosi SE	2-3 L	5-0 W
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	0-3 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	1-1 D	2-0 W
Paksi SE II	3-1 W	2-2 D
Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erdi VSE

LWWWDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
26/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	7	7	D
24/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-3	8	7	D
17/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
02/05	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
26/04	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	6	7	L

Ferencvarosi TC II

WLWLWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	5-0	6	1	W
15/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
24/05	Dunaujvaros FC Hungary NB III	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
17/05	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	3-2	3-4	6	5	L
10/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-0	3-2	2	5	W
03/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-3	1	7	L
26/04	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erdi VSE vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferencvarosi TC II win (47%). Probabilities: Erdi VSE 28%, draw 25%, Ferencvarosi TC II 47%.

How many goals are expected in Erdi VSE vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Erdi VSE 1.47 · Ferencvarosi TC II 1.92), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Erdi VSE vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.