Football · Hungary NB III · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: BFC Siofok vs Paksi SE II

Team pages: BFC Siofok · Paksi SE II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

BFC Siofok2.47

Paksi SE II1.12

1X2

66% 20% 15%

BFC Siofok Draw Paksi SE II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Siofok 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDDWW

Paksi SE II 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLLLDL

Head-to-head

BFC Siofok 2–1–0 Paksi SE II (3 last)

Paksi SE II1-3BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok2-1Paksi SE II
BFC Siofok1-1Paksi SE II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Siofok 1559 · Paksi SE II 1418

	BFC Siofok	Draw	Paksi SE II
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Siofok (rating 1559 vs 1418).
H2H favours BFC Siofok: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Siofok	Paksi SE II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/11/44%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +2’	1.36	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Siofok 2–1–0 Paksi SE II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	1-3 HT 1-2	BFC Siofok
19/10/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	2-1 HT 1-1	Paksi SE II
20/04/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-1 HT 1-0	Paksi SE II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	8	8	0	0	27	2	24
2	Budafoki MTE	7	5	1	1	14	6	16
3	Kaposvari Rakoczi	7	5	0	2	20	9	15
4	PEAC FC	7	4	2	1	13	7	14
5	Majosi SE	8	4	1	3	17	17	13
6	MTK Budapest II	7	4	0	3	21	12	12
7	Ferencvarosi TC II	7	3	2	2	15	11	11
8	BFC Siofok	7	3	2	2	12	8	11
9	Budaorsi SC	8	3	1	4	15	25	10
10	Ivancsa	7	3	0	4	13	18	9
11	Erdi VSE	7	2	3	2	17	16	9
12	Dunaharaszti MTK	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
13	Sarbogard SE	8	1	1	6	7	19	4
14	Paksi SE II	8	0	3	5	10	19	3
15	Szekszardi	8	0	0	8	3	30	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Siofok	Paksi SE II
Szekszardi	3-1 W	2-3 L
Budafoki MTE	0-0 D	1-2 L
MTK Budapest II	2-1 W	2-4 L
PEAC FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Kaposvari Rakoczi	1-2 L	1-3 L
Erdi VSE	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Siofok (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFC Siofok

LWDLLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
29/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
26/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	8	8	L
25/07	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
17/05	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
10/05	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	5	8	L

Paksi SE II

WLDLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-4	5	3	L
26/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-3	1-3	8	4	L
26/07	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Siofok vs Paksi SE II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BFC Siofok win (66%). Probabilities: BFC Siofok 66%, draw 20%, Paksi SE II 15%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Siofok vs Paksi SE II?

The model expects 3.59 goals (BFC Siofok 2.47 · Paksi SE II 1.12), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Siofok vs Paksi SE II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.