Football · Hungary NB III · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Szegedi VSE vs ESMTK

Team pages: Szegedi VSE · ESMTK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

Szegedi VSE1.11

ESMTK3.11

1X2

8% 13% 79%

Szegedi VSE Draw ESMTK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Szegedi VSE 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLDLLL

ESMTK 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Szegedi VSE 0–4 ESMTK (4 last)

ESMTK3-0Szegedi VSE
Szegedi VSE0-2ESMTK
ESMTK8-0Szegedi VSE
ESMTK3-0Szegedi VSE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Szegedi VSE 1396 · ESMTK 1594

	Szegedi VSE	Draw	ESMTK
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	7%	11%	81%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1396 vs 1594).
H2H favours ESMTK: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Szegedi VSE	ESMTK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.2	3.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/11/89%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

113.00

X8.00

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.85

2 (-2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +9’	13.00	8.00	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Szegedi VSE 0–0–4 ESMTK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	3-0 HT 1-0	Szegedi VSE
21/09/25 Hungary NB III	Szegedi VSE	0-2 HT 0-0	ESMTK
13/10/24 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	8-0 HT 4-0	Szegedi VSE
12/08/20 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	3-0 HT 1-0	Szegedi VSE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	9	9	0	0	33	5	27
2	III Keruleti TUE	9	8	0	1	15	3	24
3	Ujpest II	9	5	2	2	25	14	17
4	ESMTK	8	4	3	1	17	9	15
5	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	9	4	3	2	18	13	15
6	Vasas SC II	9	4	2	3	20	11	14
7	Csepel	9	3	4	2	20	15	13
8	Monori SE	9	3	4	2	19	15	13
9	Szolnoki Mav FC	9	3	4	2	20	20	13
10	FC Dabas	8	3	1	4	12	18	10
11	Kispest Honved II	9	2	2	5	17	15	8
12	Bekescsabai Elore SE	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
13	Hodmezovasarhelyi	9	1	3	5	10	21	6
14	BKV Elore SC	8	1	1	6	7	29	4
15	Sandorfalvi SK	9	1	1	7	6	28	4
16	Szegedi VSE	9	0	2	7	11	30	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Szegedi VSE	ESMTK
Monori SE	2-3 L	2-1 W
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Dabas	1-2 L	6-0 W
Vasas SC II	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Szegedi VSE

WDLLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	11	3	L
19/09	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	1-3	1-6	5	3	L
29/08	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	0-2	3-3	1	6	D
26/08	Budapest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-4	1-8	5	1	L
15/08	Monori SE Hungary NB III	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/08	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
25/07	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-2	3-2	3	4	W

ESMTK

WWDLWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	2	5	W
20/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
12/08	Csepel Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
09/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
26/07	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	3-0	8-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Szegedi VSE vs ESMTK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESMTK win (79%). Probabilities: Szegedi VSE 8%, draw 13%, ESMTK 79%.

How many goals are expected in Szegedi VSE vs ESMTK?

The model expects 4.22 goals (Szegedi VSE 1.11 · ESMTK 3.11), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Szegedi VSE vs ESMTK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.