Football · Argentina Championship Women · 20/07, 20:00

Prediction: Lanus (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Lanus (W)0.51

San Lorenzo (W)1.63

1X2

11% 24% 65%

Lanus (W) Draw San Lorenzo (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lanus (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWLLD

San Lorenzo (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Lanus (W) 1–4 San Lorenzo (W) (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanus (W) 1491 · San Lorenzo (W) 1592

	Lanus (W)	Draw	San Lorenzo (W)
Our model	10%	26%	64%
Market	12%	22%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1491 vs 1592).
H2H favours San Lorenzo (W): 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanus (W)	San Lorenzo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.9 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +3’	7.50	4.00	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanus (W) 1–0–4 San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/23 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	2-1 HT 2-1	San Lorenzo (W)
11/09/22 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	1-6 HT 0-2	San Lorenzo (W)
27/08/21 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	6-0 HT 5-0	Lanus (W)
17/04/21 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	1-5 HT 1-1	San Lorenzo (W)
24/09/19 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	1-3 HT 0-2	San Lorenzo (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Racing Club (W)	14	11	2	1	33	9	35
2	San Lorenzo (W)	14	11	2	1	27	5	35
3	River Plate (W)	15	9	2	4	30	15	29
4	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	14	6	7	1	20	9	25
5	Gimnasia LP (W)	15	7	4	4	26	24	25
6	Belgrano (W)	15	7	4	4	11	9	25
7	Boca Juniors (W)	14	6	4	4	16	12	22
8	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	14	5	4	5	14	12	19
9	Banfield (W)	14	6	1	7	14	19	19
10	Social Atletico Television (W)	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
11	San Luis FC (W)	14	3	7	4	15	13	16
12	Huracan (W)	14	3	5	6	8	15	14
13	CA Independiente Women	15	4	1	10	10	25	13
14	Lanus (W)	14	3	3	8	8	22	12
15	Newell's Old Boys (W)	14	1	2	11	3	22	5
16	Union Santa Fe (W)	14	0	3	11	9	32	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lanus (W)	San Lorenzo (W)
San Luis FC (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Union Santa Fe (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
CA Independiente Women	0-1 L	2-0 W
Huracan (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Belgrano (W)	3-2 W	0-0 D
River Plate (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lanus (W)

LWDLWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
08/07	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
05/07	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
20/06	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
13/06	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/05	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
15/05	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
09/05	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
04/05	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-3	2	2	L

San Lorenzo (W)

LWWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/07	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
08/07	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
04/07	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	6	9	W
29/06	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
19/06	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
14/06	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	9	W
22/05	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-0	3-0	2	3	W
17/05	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	4-1	4	8	W
08/05	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	5-0	7	1	W
03/05	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanus (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Lorenzo (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Lanus (W) 11%, draw 24%, San Lorenzo (W) 65%.

How many goals are expected in Lanus (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Lanus (W) 0.51 · San Lorenzo (W) 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanus (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.