Football · Hungary NB III · 26/07, 17:30

Prediction: ESMTK vs Monori SE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

ESMTK2.1

Monori SE1.28

1X2

55% 23% 22%

ESMTK Draw Monori SE

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

ESMTK 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWLW

Monori SE 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDLLL

Head-to-head

ESMTK 2–3–1 Monori SE (6 last)

Monori SE2-1ESMTK
ESMTK0-0Monori SE
Monori SE1-1ESMTK
ESMTK2-2Monori SE
Monori SE2-3ESMTK
ESMTK4-0Monori SE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESMTK 1577 · Monori SE 1498

	ESMTK	Draw	Monori SE
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1577 vs 1498).
H2H favours ESMTK: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESMTK	Monori SE
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.8	1.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.4	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
08:03 +3’	1.61	3.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 2–3–1 Monori SE

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	2-1 HT 2-1	ESMTK
27/07/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	0-0 HT 0-0	Monori SE
22/09/24 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	1-1 HT 0-0	ESMTK
13/08/23 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	2-2 HT 0-1	Monori SE
19/03/23 Hungary NB III	Monori SE	2-3 HT 0-0	ESMTK
04/09/22 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	4-0 HT 3-0	Monori SE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Szolnoki Mav FC	1	1	0	0	5	2	3
2	Gyulai Termal	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	III Keruleti TUE	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Szegedi VSE	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Vasas SC II	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	Bekescsabai Elore SE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	BKV Elore SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Budapest Honved II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	ESMTK	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	FC Dabas	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Monori SE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ujpest II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Csepel FC	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	Sandorfalvi SKE	1	0	0	1	2	5	0
16	Hodmezovasarhelyi	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESMTK	Monori SE
BKV Elore SC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Budapest Honved II	4-0 W	0-1 L
Gyulai Termal	1-1 D	2-1 W
Szegedi VSE	3-0 W	5-4 W
Martfui LSE	3-2 W	3-0 W
Dunaharaszti MTK	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

ESMTK

WWWDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	3-0	8-0	6	0	W
17/05	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	9	8	L
10/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	0-0	4-0	5	2	W
03/05	Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III	0-1	3-1	–	–	W
26/04	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/04	Budapest Honved II Hungary NB III	4-0	4-0	1	3	W
11/04	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/04	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
29/03	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
22/03	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	5	W

Monori SE

WWWWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Kispest Honved Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-6	3	0	L
11/07	Kispest Honved Club Friendly List	0-3	0-6	3	0	L
07/06	Gyirmot SE Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	5	8	L
31/05	Gyirmot SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
24/05	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
17/05	Budapest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
03/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	2-2	5-4	6	9	W
26/04	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/04	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs Monori SE?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (55%). Probabilities: ESMTK 55%, draw 23%, Monori SE 22%.

How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs Monori SE?

The model expects 3.38 goals (ESMTK 2.1 · Monori SE 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in ESMTK vs Monori SE?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.