Football · Hungary NB III · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: ESMTK vs FC Dabas

Team pages: ESMTK · FC Dabas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

ESMTK2.74

FC Dabas0.98

1X2

73% 17% 10%

ESMTK Draw FC Dabas

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ESMTK 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWDWD

FC Dabas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

ESMTK 4–1–1 FC Dabas (6 last)

FC Dabas1-2ESMTK
ESMTK0-1FC Dabas
ESMTK0-0FC Dabas
FC Dabas0-2ESMTK
ESMTK3-0FC Dabas
FC Dabas0-6ESMTK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESMTK 1572 · FC Dabas 1468

	ESMTK	Draw	FC Dabas
Our model	73%	16%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESMTK (rating 1572 vs 1468).
H2H favours ESMTK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESMTK	FC Dabas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
06:22 +2’	1.22	5.25	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ESMTK 4–1–1 FC Dabas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Hungary NB III	FC Dabas	1-2 HT 0-1	ESMTK
10/08/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Dabas
29/09/24 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dabas
04/08/24 Hungary Cup	FC Dabas	0-2 HT 0-0	ESMTK
07/04/24 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Dabas
24/09/23 Hungary NB III	FC Dabas	0-6 HT 0-3	ESMTK

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	8	8	0	0	30	3	24
2	III Keruleti TUE	8	7	0	1	14	3	21
3	ESMTK	8	4	3	1	17	9	15
4	Ujpest II	8	4	2	2	23	13	14
5	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	8	4	2	2	17	12	14
6	Szolnoki Mav FC	8	3	4	1	19	18	13
7	Csepel	8	3	3	2	19	14	12
8	Monori SE	8	3	3	2	18	14	12
9	Vasas SC II	8	3	2	3	18	11	11
10	FC Dabas	8	3	1	4	12	18	10
11	Kispest Honved II	8	2	2	4	15	12	8
12	Bekescsabai Elore SE	8	1	4	3	10	14	7
13	Hodmezovasarhelyi	8	1	3	4	10	19	6
14	BKV Elore SC	8	1	1	6	7	29	4
15	Sandorfalvi SK	8	1	0	7	5	27	3
16	Szegedi VSE	8	0	2	6	11	29	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESMTK	FC Dabas
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-1 D	1-4 L
Monori SE	2-1 W	3-2 W
III Keruleti TUE	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESMTK

LWWDLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
12/08	Csepel FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
09/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
26/07	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	3-0	8-0	6	0	W
17/05	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	9	8	L

FC Dabas

WLLWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
05/09	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
30/08	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	Szolnoki Mav FC Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	7	2	W
12/08	Monori SE Hungary NB III	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
08/08	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/07	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
24/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESMTK vs FC Dabas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESMTK win (73%). Probabilities: ESMTK 73%, draw 17%, FC Dabas 10%.

How many goals are expected in ESMTK vs FC Dabas?

The model expects 3.72 goals (ESMTK 2.74 · FC Dabas 0.98), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ESMTK vs FC Dabas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.