Football · Hungary NB III · 26/08, 17:30

Prediction: Csepel FC vs BKV Elore SC

Team pages: Csepel FC · BKV Elore SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Csepel FC2.54

BKV Elore SC1.44

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Csepel FC Draw BKV Elore SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Csepel FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDWD

BKV Elore SC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Csepel FC 3–1–1 BKV Elore SC (5 last)

Csepel FC3-1BKV Elore SC
BKV Elore SC0-1Csepel FC
Csepel FC3-1BKV Elore SC
BKV Elore SC3-0Csepel FC
Csepel FC0-0BKV Elore SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Csepel FC 1554 · BKV Elore SC 1408

	Csepel FC	Draw	BKV Elore SC
Our model	61%	20%	20%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Csepel FC (rating 1554 vs 1408).
H2H favours Csepel FC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Csepel FC	BKV Elore SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +3’	1.50	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Csepel FC 3–1–1 BKV Elore SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	3-1 HT 2-0	BKV Elore SC
27/07/25 Hungary NB III	BKV Elore SC	0-1 HT 0-1	Csepel FC
06/04/25 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	3-1 HT 1-0	BKV Elore SC
22/09/24 Hungary NB III	BKV Elore SC	3-0 HT 2-0	Csepel FC
23/03/19 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	0-0 HT 0-0	BKV Elore SC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	4	4	0	0	16	2	12
2	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	4	4	0	0	14	4	12
3	III Keruleti TUE	4	4	0	0	10	0	12
4	FC Dabas	4	3	0	1	9	8	9
5	Ujpest II	4	2	1	1	13	6	7
6	ESMTK	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
7	Szolnoki Mav FC	4	2	1	1	9	9	7
8	Vasas SC II	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
9	Csepel FC	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
10	Monori SE	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
11	Sandorfalvi SK	4	1	0	3	3	15	3
12	Bekescsabai Elore SE	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
13	Hodmezovasarhelyi	4	0	2	2	3	9	2
14	Szegedi VSE	4	0	1	3	5	8	1
15	Budapest Honved II	4	0	1	3	3	9	1
16	BKV Elore SC	4	0	0	4	2	15	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Csepel FC	BKV Elore SC
Hodmezovasarhelyi	1-1 D	2-3 L
ESMTK	2-1 W	0-3 L
Monori SE	0-0 D	2-1 W
III Keruleti TUE	0-2 L	0-2 L
Gyulai Termal	1-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Csepel FC

LWWWLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	ESMTK Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
08/08	Monori SE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
25/07	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
24/05	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
17/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
10/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	1	2	W
03/05	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	1-2	6-2	5	4	W
26/04	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
19/04	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	5	2	L

BKV Elore SC

LLLLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	ESMTK Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
12/08	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-2	2-4	1	5	L
09/08	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
26/07	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-6	4	3	L
24/05	Monori SE Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	5	W
17/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
10/05	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-3	2	5	L
03/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
26/04	ESMTK Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
19/04	Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Csepel FC vs BKV Elore SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Csepel FC win (60%). Probabilities: Csepel FC 60%, draw 21%, BKV Elore SC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Csepel FC vs BKV Elore SC?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Csepel FC 2.54 · BKV Elore SC 1.44), with a 60% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Csepel FC vs BKV Elore SC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.