Football · Hungary NB III · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: MTE 1904 vs Dorogi FC

Team pages: MTE 1904 · Dorogi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

MTE 19041.33

Dorogi FC1.36

1X2

36% 27% 37%

MTE 1904 Draw Dorogi FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

MTE 1904 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWDLD

Dorogi FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWLWW

Head-to-head

MTE 1904 3–2–1 Dorogi FC (6 last)

MTE 19040-1Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC0-2MTE 1904
Dorogi FC0-1MTE 1904
MTE 19041-1Dorogi FC
MTE 19041-0Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC1-1MTE 1904

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MTE 1904 1522 · Dorogi FC 1573

	MTE 1904	Draw	Dorogi FC
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorogi FC (rating 1522 vs 1573).
H2H favours MTE 1904: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MTE 1904	Dorogi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	4.4 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:08 +3’	2.45	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MTE 1904 3–2–1 Dorogi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Hungary NB III	MTE 1904	0-1 HT 0-0	Dorogi FC
21/09/25 Hungary NB III	Dorogi FC	0-2 HT 0-1	MTE 1904
12/03/23 Hungary NB II	Dorogi FC	0-1 HT 0-0	MTE 1904
11/09/22 Hungary NB II	MTE 1904	1-1 HT 0-0	Dorogi FC
29/06/22 Europe Friendlies	MTE 1904	1-0 HT 0-0	Dorogi FC
13/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Dorogi FC	1-1 HT 0-0	MTE 1904

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	8	6	2	0	24	7	20
2	Dorogi FC	8	6	1	1	26	6	19
3	FC Tatabanya	8	5	2	1	20	7	17
4	Bicskei TC	8	5	0	3	19	15	15
5	Sarisapi BSE	8	5	0	3	14	14	15
6	MTE 1904	8	4	3	1	14	7	15
7	Komarom VSE	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
8	Györi ETO II	8	3	2	3	11	9	11
9	SC Sopron	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	8	3	1	4	14	14	10
11	Puskas Academy II	8	3	0	5	14	17	9
12	Veszprem FC	8	2	2	4	13	20	8
13	Papai Perutz	8	2	2	4	7	14	8
14	Kiraly SZE	8	1	2	5	8	16	5
15	Balatonalmadi SE	8	1	0	7	7	26	3
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	8	0	2	6	4	24	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MTE 1904	Dorogi FC
Papai Perutz	0-0 D	2-1 W
Zalaegerszegi TE II	1-3 L	2-4 L
Komarom VSE	0-0 D	1-0 W
1908 SZAC Budapest	5-1 W	7-0 W
Veszprem FC	1-1 D	6-0 W
Balatonalmadi SE	1-0 W	4-1 W
Kiraly SZE	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dorogi FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MTE 1904

LWWWWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Papai Perutz Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/08	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	1-0	5-1	6	5	W
15/08	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
12/08	Balatonalmadi SE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
25/07	Sarisapi BSE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
24/05	Zsambeki SK Hungary NB III	2-1	6-1	8	0	W
17/05	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Dorogi FC

LWWWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
05/09	Papai Perutz Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
29/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
26/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
16/08	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	–	7-0	–	–	W
12/08	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/08	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	3-0	6-0	16	4	W
25/07	Balatonalmadi SE Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
24/05	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MTE 1904 vs Dorogi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dorogi FC win (37%). Probabilities: MTE 1904 36%, draw 27%, Dorogi FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in MTE 1904 vs Dorogi FC?

The model expects 2.69 goals (MTE 1904 1.33 · Dorogi FC 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MTE 1904 vs Dorogi FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.