Football · Hungary NB III · 25/07, 17:30

Prediction: III Keruleti TUE vs Csepel FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

III Keruleti TUE2.14

Csepel FC1.53

1X2

50% 24% 26%

III Keruleti TUE Draw Csepel FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

III Keruleti TUE 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Csepel FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWLWD

Head-to-head

III Keruleti TUE 1–2–0 Csepel FC (3 last)

III Keruleti TUE1-1Csepel FC
Csepel FC1-1III Keruleti TUE
III Keruleti TUE1-0Csepel FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · III Keruleti TUE 1605 · Csepel FC 1516

	III Keruleti TUE	Draw	Csepel FC
Our model	51%	22%	27%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours III Keruleti TUE (rating 1605 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	III Keruleti TUE	Csepel FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.8	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:32 +41’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · III Keruleti TUE 1–2–0 Csepel FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Hungary NB III	III Keruleti TUE	1-1 HT 1-1	Csepel FC
17/08/25 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	1-1 HT 1-0	III Keruleti TUE
14/04/19 Hungary NB III	III Keruleti TUE	1-0 HT 1-0	Csepel FC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bekescsabai Elore SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BKV Elore SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Budapest Honved II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Csepel FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ESMTK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Dabas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gyulai Termal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hodmezovasarhelyi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	III Keruleti TUE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monori SE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sandorfalvi SKE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Szegedi VSE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Szolnoki Mav FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ujpest II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vasas SC II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	III Keruleti TUE	Csepel FC
Budapest Honved II	3-0 W	3-1 W
Gyulai Termal	0-2 L	1-4 L
Szegedi VSE	4-1 W	3-2 W
Martfui LSE	4-1 W	6-2 W
Dunaharaszti MTK	3-1 W	3-2 W
Vasas SC II	3-2 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: III Keruleti TUE (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

III Keruleti TUE

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Bicskei TC Europe Friendlies	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
24/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	2-2	6-3	–	–	W
17/05	ESMTK Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	2	8	W
10/05	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
03/05	Budapest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
26/04	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
19/04	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	4-1	8	4	W
10/04	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	9	3	W
05/04	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
29/03	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	3-1	3-2	5	5	W

Csepel FC

LDDLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	Kaposvari Rakoczi Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
24/05	Budapest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
17/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
10/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	1	2	W
03/05	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	1-2	6-2	5	4	W
26/04	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
19/04	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
11/04	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
05/04	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/04	Ikarus BSE Hungary Regional League	1-0	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in III Keruleti TUE vs Csepel FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a III Keruleti TUE win (50%). Probabilities: III Keruleti TUE 50%, draw 24%, Csepel FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in III Keruleti TUE vs Csepel FC?

The model expects 3.68 goals (III Keruleti TUE 2.14 · Csepel FC 1.53), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in III Keruleti TUE vs Csepel FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.