Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 16/07, 18:00
Prediction: Cumbaya vs Club 9 de Octubre
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.84Total
Cumbaya1.08
Club 9 de Octubre0.76
1X2
Cumbaya
Draw
Club 9 de Octubre
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cumbaya
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Club 9 de Octubre
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cumbaya
4–1
Club 9 de Octubre
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cumbaya 1520 · Club 9 de Octubre 1549
| Cumbaya | Draw | Club 9 de Octubre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 34% | 24% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cumbaya: 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cumbaya | Club 9 de Octubre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 33/56/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cumbaya 4–0–1 Club 9 de Octubre
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Club 9 de Octubre | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 01/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Club 9 de Octubre |
| 24/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Club 9 de Octubre | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Cumbaya |
| 18/10/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club 9 de Octubre | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 21/05/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Club 9 de Octubre |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Independiente Juniors | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Cumbaya | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 21 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 18 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 22 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cumbaya | Club 9 de Octubre |
|---|---|---|
| El Nacional | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| 22 de Julio | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Independiente Juniors | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 3-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Club 9 de Octubre (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 13/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Club 9 de Octubre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 09/06 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/06 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 25/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | Manta FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cumbaya vs Club 9 de Octubre?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cumbaya win (43%). Probabilities: Cumbaya 43%, draw 32%, Club 9 de Octubre 25%.
How many goals are expected in Cumbaya vs Club 9 de Octubre?
The model expects 1.84 goals (Cumbaya 1.08 · Club 9 de Octubre 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cumbaya vs Club 9 de Octubre?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.