Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 23/07, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Independiente Juniors1.18
Vinotinto Ecuador0.89
1X2
Independiente Juniors
Draw
Vinotinto Ecuador
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Juniors
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Vinotinto Ecuador
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Juniors
1–2–3
Vinotinto Ecuador
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Juniors 1517 · Vinotinto Ecuador 1522
| Independiente Juniors | Draw | Vinotinto Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vinotinto Ecuador: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Juniors | Vinotinto Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Juniors 1–2–3 Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Juniors |
| 30/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente Juniors |
| 11/07/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 13/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 26/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
| 27/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 2-4 HT 0-4 | Vinotinto Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 17 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Independiente Juniors | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 28 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Cumbaya | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 22 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 19 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 19 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 9 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 17 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 29 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Juniors | Vinotinto Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Portoviejo | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Cumbaya | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| 22 de Julio | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
Vinotinto Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Orense Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Juniors win (42%). Probabilities: Independiente Juniors 42%, draw 31%, Vinotinto Ecuador 27%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Independiente Juniors 1.18 · Vinotinto Ecuador 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Juniors vs Vinotinto Ecuador?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.