Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 24/07, 21:00
Prediction: El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.99Total
El Nacional0.74
Gualaceo SC1.25
1X2
El Nacional
Draw
Gualaceo SC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
El Nacional
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Gualaceo SC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
El Nacional
3–1–2
Gualaceo SC
(6 last)
- Gualaceo SC2-0El Nacional
- El Nacional4-2Gualaceo SC
- Gualaceo SC3-4El Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · El Nacional 1394 · Gualaceo SC 1518
| El Nacional | Draw | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 32% | 47% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gualaceo SC (rating 1394 vs 1518).
- H2H favours El Nacional: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.8 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 3–1–2 Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 12/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Gualaceo SC |
| 05/06/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Gualaceo SC | 3-4 HT 1-1 | El Nacional |
| 07/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Gualaceo SC |
| 11/08/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | El Nacional |
| 17/06/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gualaceo SC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 17 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Independiente Juniors | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 28 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Cumbaya | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 19 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 19 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 22 | 9 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 17 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 29 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | Gualaceo SC |
|---|---|---|
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Cumbaya | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| 22 de Julio | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 6 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 03/06 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gualaceo SC win (48%). Probabilities: El Nacional 22%, draw 29%, Gualaceo SC 48%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
The model expects 1.99 goals (El Nacional 0.74 · Gualaceo SC 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.