Football · Colombia Cup · 22/07, 01:00
Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Deportes Tolima1.81
Deportes Quindio0.63
1X2
Deportes Tolima
Draw
Deportes Quindio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Tolima
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Deportes Quindio
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Tolima
3–2–1
Deportes Quindio
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportes Tolima 1520 · Deportes Quindio 1523
| Deportes Tolima | Draw | Deportes Quindio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 24% | 11% |
| Market | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Tolima | Deportes Quindio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5 | 3.1 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 3–2–1 Deportes Quindio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/21 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Deportes Quindio |
| 27/04/17 Colombia Cup | Deportes Quindio | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Deportes Tolima |
| 15/03/17 Colombia Cup | Deportes Tolima | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Deportes Quindio |
| 20/04/16 Colombia Cup | Deportes Tolima | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Deportes Quindio |
| 09/03/16 Colombia Cup | Deportes Quindio | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 15/04/15 Colombia Cup | Deportes Tolima | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportes Quindio |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Universitario de Deportes Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 29/04 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Deportes Quindio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 05/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 27/03 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (65%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 65%, draw 23%, Deportes Quindio 12%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.81 · Deportes Quindio 0.63), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.