Football · Colombia Cup · 30/07, 03:00

Prediction: Real Cartagena vs America de Cali

Team pages: Real Cartagena · America de Cali

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Real Cartagena1.13
America de Cali1.65
1X2
25% 26% 49%
Real Cartagena Draw America de Cali
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Real Cartagena 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
DWWLWWLDLW
America de Cali 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
WDLDDWWLWW
Head-to-head
Real Cartagena 0–1–5 America de Cali (6 last)
  • America de Cali2-1Real Cartagena
  • Real Cartagena0-2America de Cali
  • America de Cali2-1Real Cartagena
  • Real Cartagena2-2America de Cali
  • America de Cali1-0Real Cartagena
  • America de Cali3-1Real Cartagena
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1511 · America de Cali 1565
Real CartagenaDrawAmerica de Cali
Our model25%27%48%
Market26%26%49%
Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours America de Cali (rating 1511 vs 1565).
  • H2H favours America de Cali: 5-1-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Real CartagenaAmerica de Cali
Goals for / against (FT)1.7 / 1.31.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.70.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/40/30%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.2 / 4.32.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.1 / 0.33.9 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 015 America de Cali

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DateHomeScoreAway
22/07/26
Colombia Cup
America de Cali2-1
HT 1-0
Real Cartagena
13/11/16
Colombia Primera B
Real Cartagena0-2
HT 0-1
America de Cali
08/11/16
Colombia Primera B
America de Cali2-1
HT 2-1
Real Cartagena
29/09/16
Colombia Primera B
Real Cartagena2-2
HT 0-1
America de Cali
10/05/16
Colombia Primera B
America de Cali1-0
HT 0-0
Real Cartagena
27/11/15
Colombia Primera B
America de Cali3-1
HT 1-0
Real Cartagena

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Cartagena

DWWLWWLDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/07 Real San Andres
Colombia Primera B
3-1 5-1 53 W
22/07 America de Cali
Colombia Cup
0-1 1-2 55 L
29/05 Envigado FC
Colombia Primera B
0-1 1-1 95 D
26/05 Envigado FC
Colombia Primera B
1-1 2-3 64 L
22/05 Barranquilla FC
Colombia Primera B
0-0 2-1 53 W
18/05 Bogota FC
Colombia Primera B
1-1 2-1 26 W
12/05 Union Magdalena
Colombia Primera B
0-1 0-3 16 L
09/05 Union Magdalena
Colombia Primera B
2-1 2-1 28 W
03/05 Bogota FC
Colombia Primera B
2-0 2-0 36 W
27/04 Barranquilla FC
Colombia Primera B
0-0 0-0 58 D

America de Cali

WDLDDWWLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/07 Internacional de Bogota
Colombia Primera A
0-0 2-0 15 W
22/07 Real Cartagena
Colombia Cup
1-0 2-1 65 W
16/07 Houston Dynamo
Club Friendly List
1-1 1-2 L
12/07 Unam Pumas
America Friendlies
1-0 1-0 41 W
10/07 Santos Laguna
America Friendlies
0-0 1-0 20 W
29/05 Macara
Copa Sudamericana
0-0 0-0 35 D
20/05 CA Tigre
Copa Sudamericana
0-1 1-1 59 D
13/05 Independiente Santa Fe
Colombia Primera A
0-2 0-4 25 L
10/05 Independiente Santa Fe
Colombia Primera A
0-1 1-1 32 D
07/05 Alianza Atletico
Copa Sudamericana
0-0 2-0 44 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs America de Cali?

According to our model, the most likely result is an America de Cali win (49%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 25%, draw 26%, America de Cali 49%.

How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs America de Cali?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Real Cartagena 1.13 · America de Cali 1.65), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs America de Cali?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.